Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This is my personal view on the market from the fundamental and technical perspectives. I am an amateur trader/investor and am doing it for my own benefit. The coins I write about are not always the coins I am invested in, in which case I will make it clear. The information in this post is of cautionary nature and may provide both a positive and negative forecast for you to consider in making your own decisions to or not to invest.
Hi everyone,
I thought I would share some of my picks for the early 2018 and why I think they are a good buy right now from the perspectives of both technical and fundamental analyses. If you are also looking to put some of your money to work, take a look at this and share your thoughts with me.
BitCoin looks both good and bad depending on how you interpet it. Fundamentally, it still seems to be the default crypto for trading and measuring your wealth in and against. Nobody seems to doubt it will go up this year. Is it a good buy now? To me, it is a 50/50 bet from the TA perspective. On the one hand, we have a double-bottom (A, C) with climactic sell volume at A and reduced volume at C coupled with a higher bottom. However, MACD and RSI along with the not-so-great volume suggest the current movement up may end up leading to a few more days of consolidation in the range. To those willing to buy, I would purchase in 3-5 installments with the first buy executed at this very moment, and with the following 2 (see the pink lines in the example below) or 4 (additional 2 lines - one at a lower support of 9000-10000$ and one at a higher resistance of 19000-20000$) stop-loss orders placed on the exchange of your choice. That way, you will guarantee both lower prices if it goes down (my previous estimates showed a possibility of 8000$, but it doesn't seem to me now that the pattern will play out) and some extra bitcoin if it goes up while you're not looking. In either case, it is safer to leave it to the market than worry about those swings and wondering whether you should or not buy. Just make sure you have enough funds to place all the orders.
Today was the first time I bought OMG, and here is why. I believe it is a good coin fundamentally, but I simply couldn't justify buying it high when it was going up or buying it a few weeks ago when it simply couldn't stop going down. Interestingly, in both its BTC and USD value it underperformed significantly during the last (still current?) bullish ALT market - it went up less than 100% in price. Compared to 5x-10x increases of other coins, this is nothing indeed. It is market cap is also in the healthy range of under 2bln USD - neither too low or too high for the next major run-up.
Technically, it looks similar on both BTC and USD charts (with an exception of what seems to me a panic pre-Christmas sell-off on the USD chart). After consolidating at the 60% fib levels from the previous run, OMG has had 2 humble pushes upwards. If we look at it from the Elliot wave perspective, we may be looking at a small retracement before the fifth wave. Both charts show similar targets (convincing me that the pre-Christmas sell-off was an outlier rather than part of the pattern) of 32, 36 and 41$ depending on how extended the 5th wave will be. That would not be the end of it, however,. Since fundamentally there is much in favor of OMG, after some consolidation after wave 5, I would expect it to go even higher.
Word of caution: the fifth wave calculation is done on a yet-unfinished 4th wave, hence it may change depending on where the 4th wave ends.
Qash seems to be little known, but I am personally impressed with the things they are doing. Qash is a token used on QUOINEX and QRYPTOS. This makes it similar to Binance and BNB. While there is no arguing that Binance is on its way to become one of the top, if not top, exchanges, there is one thing it doesn't offer - liquidity (I don't consider USDT as such and personally would stay away from it as much as possible). The thing that impressed me the most with QUOINEX is that you can easily liquidate BTC, BCH and QASH into not one, but several fiat currencies. I personally tried it, and I loved it. There are no fees for trading the currency of your locale (or whichever you set as such) and a small fee on the rest of them (so yes, you can liquidate in Yen or USD or one of the other currencies on offer if you want). The exchange is small, but growing with a blooming community of both benevolent supporters and angry trolls. All you need for success, that is.
From the technical perspective, there is not much to say. It pumped when it started trading and started to form a symmetrical flag on decreasing volume. I have no crystal ball to ask of its next move, but something is telling me people will like the idea of easily liquidating into fiat. I believe it is going to grow more and more important as people start taking profits in more conservative currencies.
Thank you for reading. Did I miss anything? Did I get any facts wrong? I am but one man, so feel free to point out any mistakes you find.
If you like the content, please comment and follow. I aim to make occasional posts at the times when I think there is a good opportunity to buy or sell.
