XMR vs Bitcoin!
So on the daily log we have just recently completed a three outside down bearish candlestick pattern, followed by a single long upper shadow bearish candle as of yesterdays close. These are both bearish candlestick patterns.
The MACD is still trending above the signal line, though at the time of writing momentum is falling and we are looking like an imminent cross below the signal line is on the horizon.
Things aren’t looking good for the short term… but let’s see what our other technical indicators are telling us.
RSI is at 56 so we are not overbought or oversold, leaving plenty of room to go either go up or down, so not a lot of help here. Aroon Up is only just above 50 (68) and Aroon Down is at about 10 and rising – this is starting to look grim!
Let’s not lose hope for the bulls though! Looking at the EMA’s, we had a test of the EMA 26 yesterday which provided support and today we tested the EMA 12 which has also (thus far) acted as support. This is our first positive sign. In another positive sign for a bit longer term outlook; we are currently trading within the orange dashed symmetrical triangle. As symmetrical triangles are generally a continuation pattern (and provide a well deserved period of consolidation and the recent bullish run), it is likely that we will break to the upside of it – it’s just a matter of when this will occur.
If the EMA 12 continues to hold then we have a strong level of support here, as it is also converging with the 50% fib level at the same time. This would suggest a breakout of the symmetrical triangle could occur sooner rather than later. If the EMA 12 fails however, then we could be looking at a further drop and a test of the bottom of the symmetrical triangles trend line support. This would be an excellent buy zone as by this stage the triangle would be narrowing and it is likely a run back up would see us breakthrough to the upside.
In terms of trading I am looking for a confirmed breakout above the symmetrical triangle. This represents a good buy zone and we would likely be on our way to a new all time high. If the EMA 12/50% Fib combo fails, then I would be looking for the bounce off the symmetrical triangles trend line and buying here for the run up and likely break out of the triangle (this would actually generate more profits in the long run than a sooner break out).
Essentially I am bullish long term either way, it’s just a matter of when the break out will occur, and which level I buy!
Cheers
