To put it in very few words, I doubt it. Just an opinion, but I think it's an educated guess.
Now to explain.
First of all, the way he acts right now, it's Trump versus the entire world, give or take. The United States may be powerful, but it's not that powerful. Far from it. Then, Trump said it himself that China is the adversary of the United States nowadays. Seems to me that the US needs allies to stay ahead of China, if they'll be able to.
Tell me what allies does the US have now? Name one... that isn't pissed at Trump! Please don't tell me Russia... Putin (and Xi) probably laugh their asses off of the entire situation.
Sure, no ties with old allies have been 100% damaged (maybe with Canada, at least while Trump is at the White House?), but a lot of damage has been done. And trust is hard to rebuild. That goes both ways, by the way.
Not the greatest AI-generated image, but it shows the general idea, Trump settling tariffs left and right on other countries.
Probably his main publicly stated reason for applying tariffs is to force producers to move (back) to the United States. Maybe some will, given the circumstances. But how many or how big?
Let's step back for a bit and analyze the situation.
The reason why producers preferred other countries to build their production was either because of cheaper/better labor, direct access to cheaper resources, or fewer laws and regulations or cheaper ways to comply. Or for distribution reasons, made more sense to have production closer to a big market and reduce logistic expenditures.
Trump brags with new jobs created by producers that would come back or build new facilities. What he doesn't say is that the only way they would remain competitive is if they would become fully or almost fully automated, so almost no jobs. Otherwise, American salaries are way higher than in other parts of the world where production was relocated. Why would car manufacturers build cars in Mexico instead of the US, right? After all, it's just across the river... Well, looks like that river meant cheaper cars, including for the Americans that buy them.
But even this way, they have to fight with laws, regulations, permits, etc. The more advanced the country, the more over-regulated, seems to be almost a correlation, but maybe not always true.
Then, each producer has to make a decision. Do I disrupt my entire business for something that will end in 4 years, maybe even around 1.5 years? Or do I wait it out... and perhaps have a drop in sales during that time? Some may not be in the position to wait it out if they are on edge. But if they are on edge, can they afford to relocate to the US either? I assume enough will wait unless expressly they want to support Trump or are offered special conditions.
There is also the matter of how long it takes to move operations from one place to another, from building, buying or renting a place to equipping it, getting permits, hiring new people, training them, starting and building up production, possibly phasing out production in the old place and closing it, firing people if they serve the same market, etc. Will it be worth it? What kind of calculations will producers make? What kind of calculations will other countries make in response to Trump's aimless fire (attacking anyone, with a few preferred targets).
By the way, a dangerous game he plays in Greenland. Maybe that's why he and Putin are "buddies".
