Last week was... eventful in the crypto market, wasn't it? The kind that will be remembered and brought up in future arguments.
We need to ask ourselves... Is this the cycle where almost all historically verified cycle indicators—the ones that crypto investors have taken for years almost for granted—would be invalidated one by one?
Let's only consider a few of them:
This is the correlation between BTC and M2 supply:
Source
and this is the correlation between gold and M2 supply:
Source
Do you remark what previously happened when gold was so high compared to M2 supply?
And finally, let's see the weekly BTC price, and the SMA50, 100 & 200.
See how all averages are going up, and shorter term SMAs are above the longer term SMAs? Also, very important, see what happened during this cycle when the weekly chart touched or briefly went through the SMA50? So... if BTC price doesn't go and stay below SMA50, the uptrend might be still intact. For how long? Hard to say. That could still mean a red week next week, before going up again.
One more article you might want check out. If John Bollinger is right (haha, I didn't know he is still actively analyzing the markets, crypto even less), maybe we'll have a (selective?) alt season, after all?
And that without even talking about many news about fundamental changes to the crypto space that is likely to bring in a lot of capital. It's true, those investments will be targeted, and in many cases giants prefer to build their own infrastructure and launch their own assets. But one thing over another, despite asking myself some questions too because of the coincidence of the market turn with the period where 540 days from bitcoin halving passed, it looks to me that chances are that it is more likely to continue the uptrend, although we need to consider there are many variations compared to previous cycles, some intentionally introduced to toy with those relying on history rhyming, others because institutional investors follow different patterns and have different triggers / objectives than retail, and also, because leverage started to outgrow spot investments in crypto (maybe not these days after the recent washout).
