So... Trump has spoken again. A new heat has started on the intercontinental trade war, this time with the EU. Markets reacted, as we have already seen... The EU is likely to retaliate and the thing will escalate until both sides will be cooled down by their own industries not being able to move an inch due to their renewed taxation virility.
In this context, what do you think is more likely to happen with bitcoin price in the coming weeks? Here are two possible scenarios.
The "green" scenario is very optimistic and unlikely in my opinion, unless Trump has a good night sleep and decides to pull off the new 50% tariff on the EU. I doubt that, for the time being.
The "red" one may be even too mild depending on how things escalate. The thing about price steps is they can also go down. And that will also be a "nice" head-and-shoulders formation there.
If things go wild with the tariffs, we can easily see the price of BTC drop to 84k too.
For comparison, the trade war with China started mid-February, but really ramped up to rates close to and then above 100% in April.
Let's see how Bitcoin price evolved then, when the trade war talk and action was in full force:
Right after the second vertical, the US and China reached an agreement on mutual tariffs and other trade negotiations (or were rumored to reach an agreement, which they did).
So... as much as I'd like the prices to keep going up, I think we'll have a "sell in May and go away" after all. And a renewed uptrend in the fall (or maybe even sooner, a quick and violent one - the summer rallies are quite unpredictable).
