After a period of pretty high volatility on a downtrend, the crypto markets calmed down and a mini-uptrend was formed, on a lower volatility and leading to the Fed decision tomorrow on the interest rate, which is, like always, included in the price already, if it's a 25bps cut, as most people expect.
However, bitcoin was unable to break the 92k resistance and the pretty strong downtrend line we see depicted in the chart below.
On the downside, we see price found support on the blue ascending line in the last couple days. The downtrend line and the small uptrend line intersect tomorrow, right in time for the Fed decision...
The breakout of such a formation can be pretty volatile, in either directions, especially if it happens on high volume. Unless the MO changes compared to the past, the Fed interest rate and policy announcement usually comes with dumps on the market in the short term (i.e. sell the news), unless there are any major positive surprises.
So... we might see bitcoin (and as a consequence, alts) lower in the short term.
On the weekly chart, bitcoin has been supported by the 100-day moving average, as you can see below.
If that continues, BTC would drop to around 84k. If this support is breached, it's difficult to say where it will stop. There are, of course, other supports, but if we get there we will see which of them will hold and which will be breached without issues.
This is one possibility. It is still possible BTC will break through the resistance after the Fed announcement, but... it would have to be a pretty epic announcement.
Going back to the 100-day moving average doesn't exclude BTC having a good 2026. Quite the opposite, I'd say.
