BITCOIN PRICE ACTION * BTC TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - 02 MARCH 2019

By Darcy Butcher | Pacific Rim International | Crypto News 02 March 2019

IMPORTANT:

• Analysis is not trading. Understand patterns, price contraction and psychological factors.
• Develop a strategy that is practiced/proven and works well with the speed of the Crytpocurrency Market.
• Understand demand/supply, pressure towards liquidity.
• Trading strategies in other markets while has similarities may not bring like results in Crypto.
• Without fundamentals such as stop loss, risk-to-reward calculation, enter/exit, ability to respond to price action and a plan one is gambling.

OVERALL:
Bitcoin is ranging $3750 to $3950 with a higher time frame to the downside. On the 4-hour a descending triangle is forming. On the 12-hour stoch BTC is being help on the 21 EMA. The 4-hour stoch is shaking to the downside as well. It is Saturday and on the weekends we've seen BTC price action typically hunt stop losses with longer wicks.
BTC is holding critical support, and unless it is broken, the top of the downtrend channel remains the target for the short term. This is a no trade zone for many (entry could keep one trapped).

SUPPORT: $3693 - $3672 RESISTANCE: $3949 - $4000

On the daily chart , we can see that the 50 EMA is STILL holding.

The 50 EMA has been massively resistive for the entire bear market.

BTC has broken above it, and continues to hold support.

A continued hold of support WITH INCREASED VOLUME could be major sustainable turning point in the market.

At minimum as long as the 50 EMA holds, the target is at the top of the downtrend channel somewhere in the mid to low 4000s.

Early this morning Bitcoin tested $3780. A small bounce from $3600 range to the 0.382 (3750) is one possibility. It is important to note that 0.382 was tested once on 27 February.

Further downside may make its way to the 0.618 ($3533), then $3450, which would test a significant trend line in effect since December of 2018.

Looking at the daily timeframe there is nothing to do until a break with confirmation in either direction is signaled.

On the upside a test to any of the CME Future gaps could be: $3570, $4350, $4391.

We are in an overall bear market, day 429. At this juncture, it is prudent to watch and respond to price action at either retest of support or resistance with break through in either direction.

THE STOCH 2-DAY CROSSED
The 2-day stoch crossed to the downside. Historically this has indicated more downside after latest major highs:

• January 2019 $4200
• September $7400 to 6k range
• Early August $8400 to 6k range
• May 10k to 6k
• February 2018 double top at $12,000

3-DAY
-21 EMA signals a more aggressive and overall trend of the recent rally.

• Early in September BTC ranged half the week before turning to the downside.
• Bittrex actually rejected the 21 EMA on the close while other exchanges stayed above.
• THIS leaves optimism for the BULLS to rest the higher and attempt a higher high.

GREYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST OTC
-Daily closed below 55 EMA but above the 50 EMA.

• Lower timeframes BTC wants to rally.

CME FUTURES

• Closed the week at 3820 (https://www.barchart.com/crypto/bitcoin)
• Descending Triangle pattern forming off the last lower trend resistance.
• Daily 55 EMA still is governing price action.
• Range is being held by the 0.382 ($3870)
• Volume break to hunt the top side was VERY lack luster.
• A critical push to $3850 with volume confirmation would be bullish

GOLDEN CROSS

• 4-hour Golden Cross is noted/in play. It is in middle range with volume weakness (10% move, fade).
• Last year this produced moves upward of near 18% across 7 days.
• Historical this is similar to 02 March 2019 where 3-day upside was 9.21% within 5 days/20 hours.
• Here a break of the 30 EMA was a straight move down.
• Same scenario on the 25th of July 2018 over the course of 13.5 days and 81 bars with 25% gain, broke the 55 EMA and moved to the downside.

CRYPTO FEAR & GREED INDEX

• 41 (this is on higher side in a bear market)
• Hit 69 a few days ago which is the highest this year outside of the double top at 12k a year ago
• Immense pressure that could trap many

LONGS & SHORTS ON MARGIN

• 24,000 open longs
• 18,000 open shorts (2,000 hedged)
• Ratio unbalance signals BTC is not out of Bear Market

Notable:

• A QUICK MOVE to $3950 with momentum could be a straight shot to former highs.
• Move above 200 EMA would be significant for Bulls.
• Underline market dynamics not signaling a low in this range, nor the end of Bear Market.
• Many are expecting a quick pop up and then a massive dump.
• We are well below monthly 21 EMA which is generally bearish. BTC is comfortable below it.
• Possible Head & Shoulders Pattern forming.

As long as Bitcoin is between the 200 SMA (rising support trend line) and the 200 EMA (flat resistance trend line) there isn't much to be down. Most indicators affirm that the lows are not in. A break of the 200 SMA ($3363-$3400 depending on which exchange you are on) would be bearish with downward price action towards the 0.886 ($2308-2450) which is the BTC bottom in 2014. It is the same fibonacci retracement. There is a massive volume profile below $3300.

In general, most market experts frown on predicting future movements by comparing them to past behaviors. That being said, it is possible to study how it behaved in the past and create parallels with present times that would give a more in-depth overview which ultimately can maximize benefits for traders. History gives traders/investors an additional gauge to track the market. By looking at older charts it is possible to determine support and resistance areas.

*** This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only. ***

Tip Wallet - Contribute to Darcy's work here:
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ETH: 0x2a19200dec8b815035960ad703e03a3f7796bbfd
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Darcy K. Butcher, MA. BA Print & Photo Journalism
Writer, Photographer, Blockchain Educator

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