In the silence of the night, thousands of computers wedge digital money. It is the gold rush of our time. The rafts have been replaced by powerful computers bent on solving impregnable algorithms. A convoluted programming grammar that hides a vein of more than 245,000 million dollars. That is the current capitalization of cryptocurrencies. A story of money but also a story that confronts the human being with his reflection. Because it speaks of creativity and technology but also of speculation and greed.
In the middle of that conversation the bitcoin tinkles. No coin represents these two faces so well. He is an angry son. It was born in 2009. One year after the financial crash that would take the world to a decade of crisis. That historical context permeates its libertarian essence. Nobody controls the currency. It is wedge with an open source program where anyone can edit the software. To get the bitcoins you have to solve a series of numerical problems. And like gold, it was designed as a scarce commodity: there are only 21 million. 16.7 million have already been extracted. At a rate of 25 bitcoins every ten minutes. There are few and get them requires more and more time, more energy and more powerful computers. An inertia that has taken him into the stratosphere.
In the last 12 months it has revalued more than 990% and is trading above the 8,000 dollars, its maximum so far. Although subjected to strong swings. There are days that lose 20% and others that win. Some say that it is absurd that their capitalization is 137,000 million dollars because it is not backed by anything. And there are those who question, think of Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, "if we are not facing the biggest bubble in the world". However, others see redemption instead of guilt. "The only way to stop bitcoin is to turn off the world's Internet and leave it like this: off", says Roger Ver, known in the sector as the Jesus of bitcoin. Some hope to see the coin burn in hell and others reach the heaven of the Righteous. And there is no shortage of evangelizers. Some, unexpected.
The Chicago Stock Exchange will launch bitcoin at futures at the end of the year, Thomas J. Lee - one of Wall Street's most reputable managers - argues that in 2022 the currency could reach $ 25,000, Amazon studies that it can be used in its platform and the Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey, Murat Çetinkaya, believes that if they are designed well, this type of currency contributes to financial stability. Of course for its followers it gives off the blinding brightness of the golden metal. The Jordanian economist Saifedean Ammous, who these days delivers the galleys of his book, The Bitcoin Standard, argues that this resemblance is his great virtue. "It has the ability to replicate the monetary policy of gold". He adds: "The precious metal was the best form of money in history because it was difficult to increase its offer. But bitcoin surpasses him because he has a maximum limit".
But where some see fortitude others glimpse fragility. Jamie Dimon, president of JPMorgan Chase, the largest US bank, warned in September that he would fire "in a second" any operator that trades with bitcoins. "For two reasons: for going against the rules and for being stupid". The manager believes that this digital currency - which he describes as fraud - only serves murderers, drug dealers and people who live in places like North Korea. "Of course it started badly because it became a way to evade taxes using a virtual currency that escaped the Treasury", admits the counselor of a large Spanish bank that asks for anonymity. However, bitcoin is a prism of different voices. "I think Dimon needs to do his homework about the potential of technology. This can be misinterpreted, especially if it is disruptive. Which does not mean that it should be rejected", says Bart Stephens, co-founder of private equity firm Blockchain Capital.
Catastrophe threat
However, as your quote swells, so does the fear of the next big bubble. Many analysts look at their screens and already read that threat in the behavior of the currency. "Bitcoin is trapped in a bubble regime between super exponential cycles oscillating permanently between peaks and valleys", says Edgar Van Tuyll, director of quantitative strategy at Pictect WM, with financial grammar. The graphics they handle reproduce the dot.com bubble of 1999 and also the oscillations of the Hang Seng index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange during the gestation of the Asian crisis of 1997. "The bubbles are close to occur when there is something new in the economy or relatively new", clarify in the bank UBS. And digital currencies are. But what worries is not its novelty, but its use. Bitcoin is being used as an Desperespeculative instrument. Not to pay for goods or services. The vast majority of buyers are guided by greed and memory. In the last two years the cyberdivisa has revalued 2,400%. A story too seductive to ignore. But with what end?