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Not an expert.
As far as I am aware, game theory only applies when you look at larger groups and only when those compete.
Do you know the difference between a game and real life ? In a game, there are rules.
As far as Satoshi - let's assume he is a person - he broke all the rules to the game as it was played before. He would also be aware of the cascade he could set in motion by dumping his wallets.
From my perspective - assumed he is a person - it is someone who wants an idea to succeed, without it being attached to a character or 'player'. On a poker table, he would be my worst nightmare, as he seems to play without any emotion or ego and thus unpredictably.
RE: What is the probability of Satoshi Nakamoto dumping his coins?