BTC - a view from the Mountain
Blog news
- Design to be optimized
- Further indicators to be added. Suggestions welcome.
Performance statistic
monthly performance:
December also not good to BTC investor even though we saw a rally up from mid of December. January is typically a bad month for BTC - we this be inverse this time like Nov + Dec were?
quarterly/half-yearly/yearly performance
4th quarter a desaster only topped by Q1 this year. The year with -73.4% a dream for those holding short positions ... but only for them.
Q1 - typically not a strong quarter. We will see - may be the phase to bottom out.
Trend indicator
consensio
Changed the MAs to 7 / 14 / 30
Full Bear market indicated
Heikin Ashi - monthly
Strong bear Mode
Value indicator
NVT ratio/signal
Valuation: 114 - above channel (top at 90).
Signal retested 100 moving down.
http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-ratio/
Mayer multiple
- strong buy -
Below 2.4 x the MA 200 = buy signal.
https://mayermultiple.info/
Activity / Momentum indicator
Network momentum
Trending up - peaked and is back at around 150'000 transactions (constantly 200'000+ we are looking for). The peak is probably explained by coinbase reorganizing cold storage (8% of all bitcoin were moved).
active adresses
slightly going down - more people capitulating?
https://www.blockchain.com/de/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=180days
transactions per day
uptrend - reastablished. Looks strong - with around 300'000 transactions about 75% of ATH (400'000)
With active addresses declining it seems like the intensity of the activity of those on board increased.
https://www.blockchain.com/de/charts/n-transactions
Google search BTC USD
10 % of ATH - slightly trending up (see last 90 days chart).
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=btc%20usd
BTC Infrastructure (Mining) related
Hash rate
Hashrate is stabilizing.
Difficulty
Moving up slightly - first time since 6'000 failed.
Overall picture and scenarios
Woo Bull
A scenario of woo bull - just one which resonates with me most. I thought I share it with you guys.
Passion-Ground
And another scenario from my friend 
Old chart log scale
I found this little chart from 2014 - middle of the bear market. Probably a lot of people loosing hope that day. That chart made the insane looking prediction that BTC will reach 10'000 USD by 22-Nov-2017 (actual btc close that day was 8'214).
What a crazy guy that must have been..
Chart predicts we are going to see 125'000 by 2021 - not going to happen or maybe it does??!!??