If history is any indicator in the markets, we are in for a huge increase in crypto prices. Lebanon is in the news and it triggered some memories of other countries that met the same fate years ago. What happened when their people could not get their paper money out of the banks?
I think Cypress was the first to go, though it all becomes a fog of gut feelings based on mental notes, news, and reactions to the news. When Cypress fell, it had already been through negotiations with the IMF for more high-interest, country-sized, credit card debt. The conditions were simple. All you need to do is implement austerity and the money is yours. What was the money for? Oh yeah, it would all go to the countries to whom they owed money. A small percentage would be used to get more paper money into the banks, only to run out again. There was never enough to cover all depositors.
The first bank runs in Cypress happened in February/March of 2013 if memory serves. Bitcoin had gone from single digits to over a hundred dollars per coin at the same time. The first sign was live coverage of people fighting in line outside the banks and at ATM machines. I thought to myself, "Could this little island economy possibly have an impact on my bitcoin stake? Is these events related?"
When did bitcoin exit the $10-$15 range?
Greece was next in line. Its people were now trying to find a way to do commerce. Without currency, everything stops. Between April of 2013 and October of 2013, both countries were always in the news. During that same period, Bitcoin went from around a hundred dollars per, to over two hundred dollars per.
Once you start taking IMF smack, they start to talk about cutting you off, seizing your bank accounts, and forcing you to go cold turkey. Take a look at the last few words of this April-2013 Forbes article.
They were talking about trying to stop all of the listed countries from "escaping the paper system" (my words). The runs had already occurred in Cypress, and they were about to do the same thing to a greater extent in Greece. Their worries? How to stop everyone from selling their paper currency and buying another asset outside the banking system.
At that point, bitcoin was holding at over a hundred dollars.
Utter collapse. With no other options, everything would go on the auction block. Stadiums, power companies, historical treasures, and anything else that was worth anything. No more bail outs.
Since then, I have always remembered these events and have bought early whenever I see the same scenario playing out. The most recent one was in Venezuela.
Country collapses are the biggest buy indicators that I look for when it comes to bitcoin.
I am quoting myself, just now
From the time of the above Forbes article to late November, bitcoin had gone from a hundred to over eleven hundred dollars per coin.
I am calling it. I may be early but if people cannot get cash in Lebanon, the price of crypto will rise*. It may be time to put some more money into crypto-currencies. I still believe bitcoin is is as useless as bank transfers, but over six million people in Lebanon are about to discover bitcoin (and other) wallet apps. They will be looking for a way to buy.
When I say buy, I mean that they will have no way to buy anything. They will be looking for a currency that they can use now. I am not sure how every stage of the game goes, but I have watched many countries collapse. They turn to bitcoin, and they all want in at one time.
It appears they have gone through the inflation, bailouts, murders, and "tensions" over there. These were all listed while other countries were about to raise the price of bitcoin. The realities of debt, paper money and its day of reckoning seem to be at the door for Lebanon.
This is my gut feeling based on experience and I trust it.
Read more (today's articles on Lebanon)
*There are other variables at work in this particular country-crash instance. The others I had seen only dealt with a few exchanges, the only one that offered shorts or margin trading at that time was Bitfinex. These days, people are buying bitcoin without ever taking delivery of it. In other words, they do not hold their keys. There are players that have nothing to lose who are hammering the price down. I am guessing that these same people see what I am seeing and did not want bitcoin to spike starting at sixty thousand dollars. In my opinion, the recent decline is likely preemptive, them knowing that the price will go ballistic.
There is also all the recent talk by governments. Venezuela was under threat of war and nearly had regime change, the unspoken reason is because its people were mining and using bitcoin. Everyone that opted for gold or any alternative currency has been eliminated or beaten down (Lincoln, JFK, Iraq, and Syria, are some examples). Then there is the recent threat by the U.S., seeking to track down and punish bitcoin holders who do not report holdings. At the same time, there is no workable tax law to comply with and the goal posts constantly change.
If it were not for the above variables (not present during the Cypress and Greece events), I would wager that a massive bull run is unavoidable.
Feel free to take this as financial advice.
Hell, if Bill Gates can give medical advice...
