After the last week's drop, we had a roller coaster week, so let's see how things stand at the moment and how we can get ready for next week.
On the monthly time frame, price swept the previous all time low (ATL) and established a new one at $0.0327. The good thing is, we got a nice bounce off the ATL and at the time of writing, $HIVE is trading at $0.1395. It is below the bullish gap, that has been holding price for 54 month. There are roughly two weeks and a half till the monthly candle close, so nothing is set in stone at the time of writing, but if price closes below the gap, the gap becomes strong resistance. At this time I prefer not to speculate here, so let's leave it like this and we'll see once the candle closes.
On the weekly time frame, price is still heavy and by the look of it, even though there are still roughly 15 hours till the candle close, we're going to get another bearish candle. If the current candle closes below $0.1764, that means we're going to get a big bearish gap, which means resistance. There's not much to say here, the levels to watch on the upside are $0.2151 on the upside, but there's a long way up there from where we are now and we have a slim bearish gap already on the sell side.
The daily chart doesn't look good either. The drop left a huge gap, which price tried to rebalance on Monday, but got rejected on Tuesday. We have a swing low at $0.1279, which has the possibility to be swept in case there will be more weakness. It's the weekend, you cans see there's not much going on in the last two days, but in case get some volume and momentum next week, I'm looking at $0.1564 as the next swing high to be swept. In case price can turn this level into support and momentum continues, the next high to be swept is the relative equal high at $0.1945.
We have an interesting price action on the h4 time frame. Price created a bearish gap on the sell side on Thursday, which price then fully rebalanced on Friday and got rejected, which led to a low at $0.1279 on the same day. Then we got some bullish momentum, which led to several attempts to invert the gap, but all ended in rejection. That gap is a strong resistance level.
The current candle has a long upside wick, which indicates that the selling pressure is higher than the buying pressure, so chances for price to retest the bullish gap and sweep $0.135 is real. If we don't get a bounce there, the next level to be swept is $0.1279. If we get some momentum and price manages to invert the bearish gap between $0.1386 and $0.1396, $0.1408 can be next, after which, $0.1466.
$BTC is back to retesting the mid range level of the lower range. So far it looks like it hols, but we're not out of the woods yet. I'd be cautious here.
ETH/BTC took a hit as well, during the dump, but recovered really fast. It is consolidating at the moment, which is normal after some violent moves like we had lately. Levels are marked on the chart. The immediate levels to watch are 0.0035289, the current swing low, if we get more weakness. That level has to hold. If not, 0.0032261 could be next. If we get some momentum here, I'm looking at 0.0037129 on the upside.
The US government is still in shutdown, we have the economic calendar for the next week, but we can't be sure data is going to be released.
Remember, technical analysis is not about forecasting price, but about reacting to what price does.
As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
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