I work in an industry that is dependent on labor. There is certainly a shortage across industries, which supports the idea of strong employment.
With that said, I know people looking for jobs that cannot land one. I also know for my friends with opening, they are getting applications, but the quality is so low they cant hire them or they turnover right away so they leave perpetual openings. I work in a demanding industry so help has always been a little more difficult to find, but I have never seen quality of workers as low as it currently is
I cant explain it and I think many see there is some sort of disconnect. The pieces fit together somehow, but I dont think we will visualize it until they come together. It seems apparent to me there is something happening with employment far more complex than just more openings than workers. There is a story here we do not yet understand.
It is a good point. With more opening than workers the quality workers would be in the highest paying best positions and with wider job availability you would see higher tunrover for that very reason...and we do see this. There are higher turnovers currently, and I feel like I am seeing lower quality applicants for less desirable jobs.
Like I said, I cant explain it and I dont have an answer. I am working off "feelings", and something does not feel right to me. I think the idea of a strong job market gets shattered soon with some realization that comes apparent
Also, I dont see anybody talking about PPP. I think there is something coming soon with EIDL loans coming due. Lets not forget how many billions was recently given to employers to pay wages, with little to no qualifications. The first year payments were waved (although interest was accruing). While these employers did not have to make any monthly payments, those are coming due now. By October I think everybody that had one will need to stat making payments to over-sized loans
$351,000,000,000 in EIDL loans to 3.9m small businesses, at a rate of 3.75%. These loans were given with essentially no requirements, no proof, and nothing but a signature and 1 year differed payments.
So as I see it, in a economy that has not recovered, payments of $13 BILLION per month will start next month. That works out to $40k annually, paid monthly now being paid by small businesses, which was not there last month.
In other words, we moved $351 billion forward from pandemic times, to today.
Reminds me of a credit card. You take a pay cut at your job getting paid less each month. Instead of reducing your lifestyle to match your new income, you use the credit card to bridge the gap. It had 1 year no payments so everything was fine for the year. Now here you are! Income is still low and not increased. So now you have the low income AND the credit card payments
Small business employs half of the US workforce, and 90% of them have fewer than 20 employees. $40k/year, for 30 years, is a big bill just to pay back the loan that was used to pay for employees for the last couple years.
What I mean is, if their revenue was down so they were gonna lose an employee, but the loan allowed them to keep one, and now that loan is due and your revenue has not improved, you would have to lose TWO employees to get back to where you were pre-loan, so you can pay the loan minimum monthly payment.
