Hi Nouriel,
First of all I just wanna say I love you and thank you for your comments on crypto. If I didn't have someone to disagree with me I wouldn't know what I think. Second of all, I think it's fair to say you're the most informed crypto bear out there, so you deserve credit for that. Having said that, I clearly disagree with you on a couple points that I think if you knew you may convert into a crypto bulliever.
I've read your articles and think you've got a couple blind spots that I'd like to point out that I think will change your mind. "blockchain's only application, such as bitcoin does not fulfill it's purpose" As you may or may not know. You're reading this on a blockchain unless, you're reading it on a copy site. Either way, this article is and forever will be on the steem blockchain. Bitcoin isn't the only application, and we can't even begin to fathom what new types of applications and ultimately forms of behavior this technology will result in for society. Doing what centralized platforms did "but on the blockchain" is only the first and easiest usecase. I wouldn't be surprised if we all lived in a world where every corporation became a decentralized corporation and we were all paid to do things like watch netflix and take a shit and brush our teeth.
I agree that bitcoin is currently neither a store of value, nor a means of payment. But, that is right now. I don't see a future in which bitcoin doesn't become both a means of payment with volume beyond imagination, and also a relatively stable (as stable as gold) store of value. The lightning network is already on mainnet, as I'm sure you know, so a world where volume is a problem won't be around for much longer. Mind you, countries where fiat has failed, like Venezuela, still prefer this wild volatility over their own fiat currency. Also they're not allowed to use USD because it's illegal.
Furthermore, you claim that fiat has intrinsic value because you can pay taxes with them. You can pay taxes in the isle of man with bitcoin. (just kidding there are no taxes I think)
Finally, you claim that "That means if a steady-state supply of Bitcoin really did gradually replace a fiat currency, the price index of all goods and services would continuously fall." I agree, this is true. However, I think it would happen extremely slowly, and I don't know if you're aware of the pace of innovation outside of bitcoin, but goddamn the world will be a radically different place way way way before any economic disaster will happen because of how slowly bitcoin is deflating everything else. Also it can be used in conjunction with stablecoins if need be. Ultimately, you also say "there is no decentralization". I think that's an unfair statement. Bitcoin has been attacked in more ways that we can count, and yet remains standing and unable to be changed by an adversary. That's pretty decentralized. Also, we're still early and experimenting with many other forms of decentralization such as dash and their treasury and tezos with an inward looking protocol, and decred with their voting system.
Also, I hope you're not missing out on these gainz just cuz you don't think it's going anywhere. Regardless of how you feel long term, dot com bubble was way bigger and this will probably be 10x bigger but even if it's equally large there's still a lot of room to go. Yes, the gini coefficient is horrendous, we never claimed this was perfect, but it is good enough to change the world and not only bank the unbanked but also unbank the banked. It's irresponsible to tell people not to participate in this bubble at this time. You can only lose what you put in vs getting a 1000x. Basic risk/reward.
That's all bud. Hope you have a wonderful day.
Source: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-bitcoin-is-a-bubble-by-nouriel-roubini-2018-01
