Dear Steemians,
I finally had to write a post about bitcoin prices myself too. To understand my point of view I should introduce myself first. I am a political scientist and a sociologist by my degree and an entrepreneur by choice. I wrote my thesys about the relation of trust and the pricing and exchange volumes of bitcoin. Therefore, I studied some aspects of the biggest cyrptocurrency that others do not. I understand that most of the btc enthusiast are very biased towards a very bullish future but you should consider the other way around, or - even worse, I guess - the aurea mediocritas A.K.A. the golden mean.
It is truly beyond my comprehension why everyone repeating thew 50,000 - 60,000$ price range for 2018. The main reason that everyone says is the "mass adoption" of cryptocurrencies. But where I should ask. Bitcoin acceptance is declining due to enormous transaction fees and long transaction times and other cryptos are only used (if used) in their own ecosystem yet. Besides that, every great power including the US and China is trying to tax, regulate or ban the new currencies. If you ask me, that is a necessary reaction from governments that enables on the long run for cryptos to stay alive. However, in the short term, it will generate great doubts and panics all over the crypto-world.
In my thesis and other studies, I clearly identified doubt, fear, and uncertainty as a major bearish factor. Every single time, when bitcoin's so-called anonymity or self-governance got in danger, BTC prices fell heavily. I just wanted to point out, that bitcoins future is not so bright, that we would like. The centralized governments finally accepted the challenge and trying die-hard to at least regulate the currency. I think I will start to publish my thesis to show you some very interesting situations in history that prove BTC is not yet an accomplished business and still have a pretty rough road ahead.
I hope I will be wrong with my cautious attitude, since I am great crypto enthusiast and have a complex portfolio with about 50 various coins, and I truly believe in the bright future of the decentralized politics and economy, but this bright future will not come in only 11 months, I guarantee that.
I hope you will not see me as a naysayer or an anti-crypto, but I advise you to take extreme caution with these overly enthusiast and over-exaggerated predictions.