There are a lot of waves coming into the cryptosphere over the next few months.
These waves can create additional smaller waves.
Weird things are going to happen when Bitcoin hits 20k.
I've been thinking about this more and more lately... where is the price action going to land this winter? In realizing I believe the ATH will easily be breached, this also implies some other speculations.
I've already talked about how the alt-market could experience a very swift FOMO pump and dump when Bitcoin hits 20k. Self-fulfilling prophecy there... the best kind for pump and dumps.
Something else I realized though. This run is off to a quick start. It's not even November yet. The sooner we hit 20k the longer we have to generate that 20k FOMO. You know what else lines up pretty well with the 20k unit-bias FOMO?
Because if Bitcoin doubles to 20k, then our market cap is already up to half a trillion. Therefore, if 20k FOMO hype drives the price to double again, we're going to run into some epic $1T market cap hype. People fucking love round numbers, I tell you what.
Ideally, the $1T market cap hype would then cascade into a spectacular pump/dump situation. At best the market would double one last time to a total of $2T total market cap and 80k Bitcoin. The dump after this would be pretty legendary, as Bitcoin could easily crash from 80k back to 10k.
80k Bitcoin would be x12.5 higher than Bitcoin's doubling baseline and could possibly lead to a year-long bear market. I think the odds are pretty low, but it's possible given the perfect economic climate. You'll know it's possible if MSM essentially starts telling people to buy Bitcoin at the peak and they announce that a Bitcoin ETF has been approved.
I'm taking profits in December no matter what happens. How much I take and what those percentages are, is another story. Roll with the punches.
In conclusion, I think the peak of this winter's rally will be somewhere between:
If Bitcoin hits 20k in November I'll be pretty bullish and expect the peak to be 40k-60k come Dec/Jan.
If Bitcoin is like 12k-15k at the end of November I'd expect the price to top out around 30k-40k.
If Bitcoin stays flat in November I have no idea what's going on.
No, 30k is much much more likely. 30k is about x4.7 the baseline doubling value of Bitcoin, and right around the mark I would expect during this time. My predictions made on the baseline tend to be much more accurate than any of the others.
It could happen... I guess.
Bitcoin FOMO is strong.
We've all been there.
After the winter run is over I expect a crash. I expect that crash in Jan/Feb. However, at the end of this crash I'm not only expecting the momentum from a dead cat bounce due to winter volatility, I'm also expecting consolidation in February to transform into a halving pump and dump come May.
