Don't buy Hive.
DEFEND Hive.
Do not place market orders.
Set limit orders to buy at 44.4 cents.
The 200 day moving average is stronk.
So yesterday I was telling everyone to buy for various reasons, and those reasons have become even more compounded today. For one, the MA(200) has held even though yesterday it looked like it was going to crack. Price is still being defended at 44.4 cents, and this is a good level to defend. Like I've always maintained, I personally value Hive at least around 80 cents, so this is still a huge discount even though we were just recently at 25 cents. Those bottoms come and go quite fast, don't they?
They are now the top HBD holder by far, and if I'm being honest I'm surprised this type of action didn't happen the second witnesses shifted the yield on HBD to a whopping 20%. With a 5% debt ratio, HBD is the best deal in all of crypto, and nobody seems to realize it... nobody but lazy-panda at least.
My prime target to stake 1.2M... maybe $4M
Yeah you heard him, folks. Lazy-Panda declaring permanent HBD buying for potentially weeks or months. Before reading this comment I had already noticed that the stabilizer had run out of HBD and the price was being driven up. Now we know why. If this declaration is to be trusted Hive is basically guaranteed to go up from here as more and more Hive get converted into HBD to create the supply needed to match such demands.
The real variable is how much HBD is worth. So because we know that Hive can be sold on Binance (huge liquidity pool; bigger liquidity pool wins) for 44.4 cents, the fact that I could buy on the internal market for 42.1 cents means that the value of HBD is 44.4/42.1 or around $1.055, which is also confirmed by aggregators like coingecko.com. It's not an accident that HBD is worth just slightly more than it costs to convert HIVE into HBD. This is all by design. I expect conversions an the $1.05 price to continue on for quite some time if this declaration can be trusted.
There is one daunting piece of TA that is giving everyone pause, and that is the Bitcoin 50 week vs 200 week moving average. The 50 week is about to cross lower than the 200 week which will initiate a death-cross, which could be bad.
As a perma-bull I'm not really worried about this death-cross at all... in fact I feel like it actually might be bullish, but again this could be the echo-chamber talking so it's worth bringing up. The reason why I think it's bullish is that it signals that Bitcoin is more oversold today than it ever has been in its entire existence. This has never happened before, so it's very significant either way. Considering that the spot-price is also converging at the moving average prices I find that to be quite significant as well. Given the angles the death-cross is guaranteed no matter what spot does, but I'm not sure that this one matters. Bears are grasping at straws me-thinks.
Also a 200 week moving average is almost four years. Is that really a valid metric to be using for TA? I mean sure 50 makes sense because that's basically one year, but 200? lol really? This average didn't even exist until 2013 when there was actually 4 years of trading data to calculate. Bears think we'll crash because the average of the last 4 year cycle wasn't high enough? Again, doesn't that imply the exact opposite? :: That because the last 4 year cycle didn't moon like 2013 or 2017 we are in an even more stable position than usual. I'll be surprised if this death-cross actually gives bears the price action they are looking for. $20k is definitely on the table but the whole $10k nonsense is not.
I just now started my 3 day unlock on my 2000 HBD I had sitting in the savings accounts. If lazy-panda wants to buy it at a 5% premium, be my guest. This $2000 is Bitcoin money that I sold the bottom with at $16k. I was a distressed seller and needed to make sure I could pay bills for a couple more months. Also the main reason I did it is because of all the Binance FUD and the fact that Binance withdrawal emails were bugging out and it was making me super nervous.
Now that the market is +50% across the board I feel a bit more comfortable capitulating and taking the loss (also I found another source to pay bills). Again, all signs add up to Hive still having bullish momentum. Lazy-Panda buying up all this HBD is going to provide massive support, and if we all pitch in and defend the MA(200) it's going to be super easy to maintain all the golden crosses coming our way. Don't forget that Hive has ridiculously low liquidity right now because of the FTX collapse (even though we weren't listed there the arbitrage/market-maker bots across the entire ecosystem got annihilated.
Seriously though... buy Hive. When is the last time I wrote a blog post telling people to buy Hive? Oh wait it was at 25 cents... okay but also that was the bottom and the time before that was long long ago, which was the original point I was trying to make. I don't say these things lightly anymore. All the metrics point to this MA(200) level being critical, and I want to be on the front lines defending it.
I'm starting to learn that the best way to make money in crypto is not to directly ask how you can make money: this always leads to greed and the inevitable fuckup that will end you. The best way to make money in crypto is to provide value to the network every chance we get. Crypto has a way of rewarding users that provide value to the network rather than trying to extract value for themselves.
And so I ask Hive the question: "Should I provide liquidity here?" Unfortunately Hive is not sentient (yet) and thus it does not answer with words, so I have to interpret the information I have and guess what Hive wants. But I think Hive does want me to defend the MA(200) for all of the above reasons and more. Maybe that sounds like crazy-talk to you, but I disagree.
