Crypto's sole purpose of existence is to avoid capture.
That is the primary directive and only source of value that it has.

As far as I'm concerned CBDC is not even a talking point as it is inferior in every way to the current infrastructure in place. It's just a shitty database with a very high learning curve that nobody wants to use with counterparty-risk that far exceeds anything in existence today. This can be shown quite easily with the bastardized versions of UTXO management they employ.

The entire point of the UTXO model is to prevent double-spends within a decentralized system. A couple of thoughtless eggheads put their heads together and were like, "look what we built it's Bitcoin but it's centralized." So they understand the micro technical complexity perfectly but not what the tech was actually designed to accomplish in the first place on the macro level. All this fuss about CBDC and yet nobody has shown me how I would even go about buying some of these tokens; not even on the most prolific of centralized exchanges that list every piece of hammered dogshit under the sun.

CBDC isn't even a technology; it's a brand. It's the exact same brand of intranet/extranet nonsense that was enterprise blockchain: a thing that nobody even talks about anymore because BILLIONS were pumped into it and they went absolutely nowhere, just like CBDC. The rebrand is a distraction.

Crypto cannot be captured. It exists digitally. Only people can be captured, but people are accustomed to a certain standard of living and will only tolerate small increments of frog-boils-slowly uncomfortability. This entire façade collapses when the change is too quick and too undeniable. Narrative matters, and that narrative is changing too quickly and to many people are visibly waking up to the bullshit in real time.

What we are seeing right now is the opposite of what you are saying. The regulations are being rolled back. The billions upon billions of dollars within this industry is becoming more powerful than the politicians trying to regulate it. Just like every other too-big-to-fail institution it is the institution that captures the government, not the other way around. We are seeing this happen right before our very eyes and it would take quite a lot of speculation to become reality before I'd be worried about a different outcome.