But why!?!
If we're being totally honest, most of us here are way too overexposed to this market. If you find yourself waking up and immediately looking, or even worse, checking the spot prices multiple times a day... you're for sure risking too much here. Of course there are some pretty good reasons why we would collectively do this, such as a political protest against rampant imperialism, lack of actual opportunity within the broken economy, and a failing currency situation... but no matter how it is justified the fact remains that this is a very stressful environment. Perhaps there no way around that. The world is a stressful place, especially in this wonky habitat.
Many are blaming this or that news for the struggle-bus market (FOMC), but honestly this was a highly likely outcome that I've been pointing out for months now. In fact I even called it out down to the day a couple of times (June 5 being a key period). Summer has never been bullish immediately following a record breaking winter. The cycle continues to cycle. Weak hands get flushed and strong hands hunker down and whether the storm. There aren't a lot of other options when we consider the unpredictability of the market and how most gains for the entire year are made on a few key days. Trading is a possibility, but trading is also surprisingly difficult for various reasons (mostly emotional).
Anyone who can make it to the end of the year without being a distressed seller is probably doing just fine. Anyone who actually has dry-powder to buy these dips is likely in celebration mode. Of course as we all know one dip can lead to another and then another and another. The dip of the dipptiy dip. We've all seen the meme.
By all accounts normally by this time in the cycle: Bitcoin ranging at all time highs would be a legendary time for an alt-market. We've currently capitulated into the exact opposite scenario. Key alts are dipping more than twice as hard as BTC, which is super annoying but is also a very good reason to hold a lot of BTC. Many alts are reaching key levels of support while Bitcoin's key level of support $58k is still another 11% dip away which could trash alts another 20%+... so that's fun.
Clearly investors are in risk-averse mode which makes perfect sense when we look at the macro side of the economy. It hasn't looked that great for a while now. We've been hearing about inverted yields on bonds for years and inflation is still higher than the stated target even after all this time. Luckily crypto ultimately beats to its own 4-year rhythm in the grand scheme of things. I'm still pretty confident 2025 will be one of the biggest and craziest bull markets we've ever seen. It will make times like these a distant and vague memory I'm sure.
The market's willingness to sacrifice alts also lends itself to the idea that Bitcoin can't really go below $58k at this point. However, a double-bottom has a significant chance within the coming months. Dominance is being propped up once again by the smaller cap coins. Risk-averse environments tend to have this affect. Bitcoin can stay propped up here but there's really no telling what happens to everything else. A 10% dip on Bitcoin could be 30% for the unlucky ones.
Hive is already in that sweet-spot 25-cent buy range I talked about earlier. Do we recover like we did last time all those months ago or will continue to get hammered until September? Unclear. All I know is that my strategy involves the end of Q3 being a low as is often the case. Number can always go lower, but I do believe we'll get a good bounce here by America day (July 4th). God Bless.
In fact if Bitcoin isn't above $72k by that time (which it won't be) I'm going to assume it's just a dead-bounce waiting to go lower. The market still hilariously trades off these 2-week moon cycles. I might make some bets in the coming weeks. It's been a while. A return to $58k is worth at least a large x4 long especially if it comes right at the end of the quarter. That's just free money right there and wouldn't get liquidated until the price hit $44k which I'm certain is well out of range by now with all this institutional adoption. The buyers of last resort are already defending higher price points.
I'll have to write a separate post about it later, but apparently I've been hearing on the grapevine that hedge funds are buying spot Bitcoin and shorting the Bitcoin futures market for "risk free" yield. This is called cash and carry arbitrage and it seems to be a pretty high-level financial move that's not particularly intuitive. I guess that's why bankers get paid the big bucks. I wonder if that strategy will somehow blow up in their faces. I assume it won't but you never know with BTC.
Another day of red in the wake of all time highs.
Hang in there, fam!
The market always makes a move when we least expect.
