Yeah I know dozens of ETFs have been wrongfully rejected by the SEC. Hell they are even being sued over it. But an institution like Blackrock doesn't submit a bid for something like this unless they know they're getting what they want. The wheels have been greased. This ETF is as good as approved.
Anyone who cares about number go up, especially during the rough patch we find ourselves in, is like "yay Bitcoin ETF". Anyone who cares about decentralization is like omfg Blackrock ETF Bitcoin has fallen from grace. Both of these outlooks are flawed for various reasons.
The greedy and pathetic crypto moon-boys can't get enough of something like this. Of course you're not necessarily greedy and pathetic if you want an investment to do well. But certainly their are signs that one might be here for the wrong reasons. Wen lambo?
Basically I have a problem with anyone who wants to extract value from other people. Anyone who wants to enrich themselves by sucking the lifeblood out of others can suck rocks. However anyone that wants to get rich through cooperation and creating something the world has never seen or even dreamed of is obviously fine by me.
Well by the end of this year the doubling curve hits $100k, so I wouldn't even be surprised if we hit $100k by the end of this year. If we do I won't even call it a bullrun, I'll just be calling it the recovery to a major setback.
If we assume that BTC is still on a 4-year cycle then 2025 is the pico-top year, in which case the curve will sit at $400k. At that point, assuming the curve is even still a thing, $1M would be a perfectly standard bull market and a relatively expected price given continued exponential growth. Of course there are no guarantees but that's a long way off and I'm done getting my ass kicked by such lofty speculation.
This mentality is also incorrect and hypocritical. Why? Because people act like crypto is supposed to censor and subjugate the rich and powerful. "How can crypto empower the people if it doesn't disempower the elite?" This is ridiculous absurdist thinking rooted in a falsely projected competitive ecosystem.
It's like everyone unilaterally forgets that crypto is PERMISSIONLESS. Permissionless, as in anyone gets to use it. Permissionless, as in rich people still get to use and profit from it. Nobody ever said big banks and other institutions like Blackrock wouldn't use crypto, and yet time and time again the expectation is that we are going to build something that takes over the world and all the powers that be are just going to ignore it, roll over, and die. Welcome the real world people; that's not how it works.
Bitcoin is at the front of the line when it comes to institutional adoption. There are multiple reasons for this. One being it's been around the longest. It has the highest security. And the most effort has been put into controlling it. Don't be surprised if you find out that governments and institutions all around the world have been secretly setting up mining operations. Hashrate at all time highs with price at local lows is extremely abnormal.
With the SEC attacking crypto as hard as they possibly can under the guise of "protecting investors" it's quite suspect that this EFT play comes in like this from one of the world's biggest and potentially feared institutions. Sure it could all be a coincidence, but events like this have been stacking together so hard lately it feels extremely coordinated. The weak hands are being hammered out of existence, and by the time they realize what happened crypto will 10x and they'll have just enough time to buy in before the sharks crash the price again and leech more blood from the population. Business as usual.
Because the SEC keeps lying and saying they're "prone to market manipulation" which is an obvious lie because there's nothing about the derivative version that stops market manipulation. In fact a derivative pool is smaller than the real thing so it should be even easier to manipulate on a liquidity basis. Luckily a this point the SEC has tilted their hand and we can see beyond any doubt that their words mean nothing and they are purposefully rigging the system in the favor of the most powerful players. Blackrock is one of those players, which is why this particular EFT is practically guaranteed to be approved.
Blackrock placing a bid for a Bitcoin ETF is neither a good nor a bad thing. It's simply what was always going to happen eventually. This is the path that we are on. It was unavoidable no matter how good or bad someone decides it is on the analysis side of things. The tidal wave doesn't care what we think. We can either maneuver around it gracefully or get utterly destroyed by it. Yelling at it or even swinging a sword isn't going to have any affect. Water flows.
This spot ETF is as good as approved, and when it does get approved it will definitively show the deception of the regulators and how they openly play favorites and break their own laws for personal and professional benefit. It's not what you know, it's who you know. A wave of lawsuits is about to crash down hard on the SEC, and they're going to lose them all, along with their credibility. But hell maybe that's all part of the plan when it comes to organizing such a massive pump and dump. All I can say is that the next couple years will be far from boring.
