Crypto is still very much in the will-it-or-wont-it phase of the market. Of course the answer is always 'yes' and the real question is 'wen'. For those who compulsively check the charts every day this can be an unnerving time. These moments come across all forms of gambling. Constantly breaking even is often perceived to be more boring and unbearable than actually losing money. Be careful what you wish for! Hold on to what you've got and be grateful for the opportunity. Mindset matters.
I often ask myself how I'd be feeling if the price moved in one direction or the other. For example, if we dipped down to $65k I'd be very uncomfortable and bearish even though that's only a 4% dip. If we spiked above $72k I'd be bullish even though that's less than a 7% pump. In both of these situations I realize I should be doing the exact opposite of the feelings that pop up as a result of these moves. Buy low sell high. Sounds so easy and logical. It never is in the moment which is why it gets repeated over and over again.
Well May has ended and we were supposed to get a signal to that effect. And I suppose we kinda sort of did with that pamp from $56k to $72k, but honestly that's quite simply not good enough to even imply that we've broken out of the crab yet. At this point it seems as though we need these moving averages to act as a floor to springboard above that $72k cork that's been boxing us in for so long.
Tomorrow we have an interesting intercept between two major lines I've drawn at $72k. This may act as a magnet and I am somewhat expecting to seem some volatility tomorrow in one way or the other. I also like what I'm seeing in that descending triangles often prove to be bullish for Bitcoin (unlike other charts). Price is looking stable here which is exactly when it decides to make a big move. Of course "big" in this context is like 5% which could also be interpreted as a day ending in 'y' for those of us who have been around the block a few times. Crab crab crab.
I will always be perma-bearish on September as the odds seem to forever favor this sentiment. So basically no matter what the price is doing I'll need to be taking a little off the table if only to shove it all back in at the end of Q3. If we show strength in August I'll be slightly annoyed as August is the most unpredictable month in the calendar from what I've seen. Perhaps I'll just leverage an event like that into selling more, but either way the numbers I'm playing with a quite small compared to my overall stack size. This is honestly a very dangerous time to try to make any big moves. It's a 4-year cycle, and 2025 is the real time to be making hard decisions. Until then these are practically play-money moves.
As our network has been known to do we are still scraping the local bottom (25-35 cents) while Bitcoin has ascended to all time highs from the $16k floor. Truly this is very annoying especially for someone like me that is perma-bullish on Hive and what we have to offer. I definitely have more BTC now that I did last cycle in 2020... but also not enough to justify dumping it into the coins I actually want like Hive and Rune. Sometimes it feels like a monkey throwing darts at a board would outperform the lot of us, and maybe it would.
It's very demoralizing to be in this position once again, but I guess it shouldn't surprise us as it seems to be a theme. Looking at the chart we are continuing to bottom out against BTC. 446 sats per Hive. For context the all time low is 300. I look at this chart and I'm like wow I really should be buying here, but with what funds to pull from? At the point the best I can do is be annoyed that I don't have a balanced portfolio and continue to stack my blogging, curation, and node rewards. I do still have a small chunk of BTC on MEXC that I'm looking to liquidate to pay bills over the next few months. I think there's a very significant chance that I won't have access to that exchange by the end of the year. It will be DEXes from here on out if that happens.
Always darkest before the dawn, as they say. It's normally very profitable to bet against our own emotion within these vampiric markets. On a very real level it pays to divorce oneself from the assets under their control. The trick is making sure that this level of apathy doesn't lead to making purposefully poor financial decisions.
At the end of the day we are still very much in practice-mode when it comes to the current market. In the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter if summer performs well or what the price is at the end of Q3. It's all about Q4 and 2025. I'm not worried about these faux top signals until the market sentiment actually portrays some hubris. From my perspective all I see is fear, which is ironically a good and healthy sign.
