On the heels of the SEC losing in court against the Grayscale spot ETF appeal, Gary Gensler has once again been forced to answer for his crimes. Not for real but just the run-of-the-mill song and dance they do for us plebs.
The delay in approving the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF may be part of a broader strategy.
Ha, yeah, the broader strategy of allowing Blackrock to get all their ducks in a row for the first approval that will no doubt be followed by a wake of approvals. The floodgates will open soon enough. Count on it.
In any case the ARK application was delayed to January despite not being due until November 11. Many are a little shocked by this, as it is largely and unprecedented move to push back a decision so far in advance for seemingly no reason. I don't know maybe they anticipate a government shutdown or something, but at the same time it seems like the regulators have always had it out for ARK for whatever reason. Politicians gonna politic.
Bitcoin is not a security
Gensler once again reiterated that Bitcoin is not a security during a recent hearing, but refuses to comment on its status as a commodity. Makes sense considering the SEC seems to be in a power competition with the CFTC when it comes to crypto. Gensler wouldn't want to set a precedent for Bitcoin that could then easily be applied to other networks such as LTC and XMR (and perhaps all POW chains for that matter).
The truly funny thing about Gensler reiterating that Bitcoin is "not a security" are the legal ramifications of the statement. I've done enough research on securities law, the Howey Test, and "investment advice" to understand exactly what that means.
When Gary Gensler comes forward multiple times and assures congress that Bitcoin is NOT A SECURITY usually the outcome that we see as crypto users is that a bunch of delusional maximalists get all high and mighty on Twitter. But the actual subtext of the statement is more along of the lines of: "Yes, you will easily be able to get away with insider trading on this one, friends."
If Bitcoin is not a security then it basically gives free rein reign for politicians to use to their power to manipulate the market and profit from it. They've been doing it out in the open for years now with actual stocks and other securities. Nobody stops them. An asset like Bitcoin that is legally not a security is even more difficult to prosecute because the underlying value is presumably controlled by no one (like gold) and "insiders" do not even exist on a legal level. Not a "common enterprise" confirmed.
So when we see congress "demanding" the SEC approve an ETF we can be damn sure they're going to find out before everyone else exactly when that's going to happen and place their bets accordingly... likely to excess considering the risk is low and the reward is quite high. In the grand scheme of things the BTC market cap is still quite tiny and easily manipulated one way or the other. This is exactly the reason Gensler claims to deny the ETFs in the first place when really the ultimate goal has always been to pave the way for his crony comrades.
I'd also be quick to point out that politicians exploiting the market in this way isn't really that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things. Politicians are small potatoes. They are cheap dates and pale in comparison to entities with actual money behind them.
Politicians manipulating the markets are not hodlers. They want to get in and out as fast as possible. Buy the rumor: sell the news. At this point I still very much expect that an ETF will be approved in January. Many timelines seem to all converge at this point. If I'm right we have to assume a bearish position while everyone else is hyping up the halving event coming down the line in 3 months. Always good to bet against the herd it seems.
The last 30 days of price action were the best we could have hoped for. September is always a bad month. Just look back over the last 10 years. Every September is bad, or at least not good. It's either down or sideways, and this time we basically got a sideways month. Not too shabby.
We also got a pretty good indication of a completely bottomed out market on 9/11 that doubled tapped $25k and somewhat solidified the $25k support line. My plan was always to ape in at the end of September, and I'd really like to see a 10% dip down to something like $23500, but it seems like that's simply not going to happen. It somewhat feels like we are instead on the verge of an extreme supply shock, especially considering Bitcoin on exchanges sits at local lows.
On top of all this it's also nice to see just how bearish everyone is on crypto Twitter. Yesterday we got an interesting pump and dump that sent multiple accounts on crypto Twitter absolutely spiraling. Even though it was only a 2% move up and 2% move down over the course of a few hours, people lost their minds over it. That's a very good headspace for the masses to be in given the current climate of the market. Just like the end of every other September for the last 10 years, now is a safe time to buy.
Although it is still quite unclear what's going to happen in a couple of months. I suppose this is always the case. Volatile market is volatile, but at the same time Bitcoin is as non-volatile now as it ever has been. We've turned a major corner and achieved a surprising milestone recently considering that BTC somehow has lower volatility than a lot of these stock indexes. I never thought such a thing would even be possible so early in the game, yet here we are. All the more reason for me to believe that this lack of volatility results from the 'fact' that the current spot price is scraping rock-bottom and we have very little room to move down while the doubling curve towers above at $80k.
The SEC is seemingly under extreme pressure from both congress and court rulings to ease up on their stance against crypto. Will Gary Gensler obey? Of course he will. Honestly I feel like this is all just part of the plan. I guarantee Blackrock gets the first ETF approval. It's only a matter of time at this point. It's almost guaranteed to happen within 12 months and a very significant chance of happening by January. Just in time to capitalize on Q4 profits and halving event FOMO. These events seem practically scripted at this point. Probably because they very much are. Someone is pulling strings. Dance Gary dance. Faster!
