Over the past couple of months, I have been a skeptic on the rise of prices in the crypto market and always said that those would be short-lived. I've written tens of posts here on steemit warning my readers of the trap of a 'fake' bull market and I was proven right shortly afterward.
This time around my notion has changed. I think the bear market is now behind us and we should brace ourselves for another bull-run heading into December. Time and again I've stressed out that the market is saturated with day-traders and longer-term hodlers. This was the single reason why bitcoin would shortly rise then fall back to the $6k level and below.
Traders would manipulate the price going up and coming down hodlers would buy more bitcoin if it fell below $6k. Which is why traders wouldn't sell either below this level as it would mean selling to hodlers who are not selling anytime soon. So it would be like giving away a rare item to a collector who'll likely put a much higher price tag on it.
I've discussed this battle between traders and hodlers multiple times in the past. Here's my most recent post on traders vs. hodlers where I go in depth on the topic. It's titled 馃槕 They Want Your Cryptos! Don't Budge. 馃槕 Visit that link to get a much better feel of what I'm alluding to in the above paragraphs.
There's a couple of reasons why I think that we're exiting the bear market. Most of which I have to admit are theories but calculated theories nonetheless. By observing the market, the news and through experience in cryptocurrencies. Having seen the ups and downs play out plenty of times now, I have come to the conclusion that this time around this bull run is for real.
Looking at the bitcoin chart there is an interesting pattern on the month of September. Over the past three years (2015, 2016, 2017) bitcoin's price has always been on the climb during this month leading up to the remainder of the year. Over the past month bitcoin's rise has held sturdy which complements what has occurred over the past three years as well. As someone with some knowledge of gambling and sports, there's a rule that you should never bet against a winning streak.
Since it's human beings doing the buying and selling on the crypto market it means there's psychology involved and this could be the single true reason for the past three years as well. People have a need to finish strong, they want to end the year on a good note especially financially. It's no coincidence that more money is spent at the end of the year than any other time.
Around the world, this is known as a 'Festive Season'. It's the holidays with lots of festivities going on, concerts, shopping sprees, Christmas, and New Years celebrations etc. This is a time when everyone is looking to have a good time and celebrate the end of the year. What better way to celebrate the end of the year than celebrating a great year!?
Fortunately, if you're a trader you have the opportunity and know-how to guarantee yourself a great year. Doing so is the easiest thing to do in the cryptocurrency market - you just let the market do its thing. Meaning you stop trading, no buying or selling just sitting back and watching how things unfold. As the price rises more and more people enter the market looking to make a quick buck and the snowball effect kicks in.
We saw this exact scenario play out late last year into its peak in December. I believe we're going to see a similar occurrence this year. One thing to always remember is that we might be in a bear market but bitcoin's price is 10x (times) where it was on this day last year. I am betting that bitcoin will reach $100K this year, mark this post.
Lastly, the month of September happens to be the end of the financial year in the US. Government and business are doing its accounting and drawing budgets for the new fiscal year.
There is one caution though. With the upcoming SEC decision of a Bitcoin ETF on the 21 September, it is without a doubt that a rejection would be bad on the price of bitcoin in the short-term. This would obviously disrupt any plans made for a massive bull run towards the end of this year. On the flipside though if the ETF is approved you might as well take an early vacation as that $100K will almost be a guarantee.
Is it a coincidence that the SEC pushed back its decision basically to the end of the financial year? I doubt it. This was planned of course and what it means its still unclear. I will probably write an article next week on my theory as to why the date was pushed back and which direction the decision is likely to go because of all these factors.
I hope you enjoyed reading this post because I enjoyed writing it. I'm looking forward to writing that next post about the upcoming SEC's decision on the Bitcoin ETF and I'll share my insights on the whole situation.
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