This is a 7 year chart of BTC, priced in USD on the logarithmic scale. It shows percentage moves rather than nominal dollar moves, helping us gauge trends over long time periods and large value fluctuations.
You'll notice I've used a blue brush to paint a "summary" of the price action for extra clarity. Today we're at the very right-hand point, at $13500 USD.
One way to find out where the price might go next, is to follow the trend of where it has been. Since BTC, while notoriously volatile, has indeed followed a recognizable overall trend, we can use that to estimate what another few years may bring.
Of course, there's no guarantee that what happened in the past will repeat verbatim. In fact, it's almost guaranteed not to. This is only one potential way to ESTIMATE what might be coming, knowing just because it has worked for several years doesn't mean it will always.
Here's what happens if you copy the corresponding 4 year section from the chart, and attach it to today, continuing the long term trend:
You'll notice that this doesn't assume there will be a nonstop climb from here to one million - there will continue to be massive volatility and even bear markets. That has always been the case.
Please note that this isn't necessarily a prediction, just a calculation, one I've used in the past with great results. If you want my latest thoughts on price action, click here for a short video, which links to my most recent actual prediction - a 2.5 year old video that covered everything up to the end of 2020. It has been perfect thus far and I have no reason to revise it.
The best average trend line (in red) oversimplifies a complex chart, but still makes a clear point:
And one potential answer is: approximately 2024.
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