We are now in a period of intense stagflation, defined as high unemployment, high inflation, and limited growth. Stagflation especially impacts the middle class and working poor. While mainstream economists claim stagflation is merely a hypothetical concern, using honest metrics its clear we are already deep into it. There's plenty of motive to deny the economy has entered stagflation - it's an incredibly dire economic condition that is difficult to recover from.
So, are we in stagflation already? If so, how bad is it?
Unemployment
When people's incomes are down, their economic situation deteriorates.
Currently in the US, unemployment is at 25%, the highest level it reached during the Great Depression.
Inflation
Price inflation is one of the most obvious economic indicators showing the average person something is amiss. It directly impacts lives, and leads to hardship, illness, and death.
The news is currently filled with stories about the 7% inflation rate. But measured in the same way it used to be measured, the real inflation rate is actually a scorching 15%! That's the highest since data was kept beginning in 1980.
Economic Growth
Some sectors of the economy (like pizza delivery) have done well over the past couple years, but lockdowns in general are NOT good for productivity or growth. By very definition, locking something down is restricting it, limiting it, and slowing it down. The economy has suffered greatly, and if we had true metrics of the situation, I suspect economic growth is at one of the lowest points in history right now.
All the conditions are met, in a major way. So we're in stagflation... bigtime.
But the first step in solving a problem is identifying it, right? Why are most corporate analysts still in denial?
The main reason is that if they admit we're in stagflation, the question becomes "how did this happen?", and the answer is Covid lockdowns and multi-trillion-dollar bailouts. When you shut businesses and industries, keep people locked up, and print trillions from thin air, you get runaway inflation and unemployment. The same people responsible for the lockdowns and bailouts are the ones responsible for the stagflation - and misery - we're seeing now. As those conditions worsen, the ones who made it happen will increasingly be targeted for removal.
They're doing everything they can to delay that. Denying there's a problem is a delay tactic.
Those of us with eyes to see know things are bad right now. We know we're already in hyper-staglation. We also know that the economic tsunamis created by all that currency creation have not yet fully hit. And we recognize that the actions that caused it continue to be repeated, and a hyperinflation spiral is becoming inevitable.
DRutter