This just in from Vancouver BC Canada, one of the world's centers of cannabis culture and activism.
The nation-wide "legalization" of cannabis (as flawed as it may be) has had a deflationary effect on the market, already driving prices down at least 20% since October 17th 2018!
The standard measure for cannabis prices is 1 gram of dried bud. Quality varies, of course, so when comparing prices it's best to compare them across a single quality level.
The $10 gram
Here in Vancouver, $10 (CAD) has been the standard price for a gram of good bud (nice nugs, popular strain, lots of trichomes, properly cured, light-coloured ash) for a very long time. As inflation takes away the value of our dollars (as it does with every fiat currency in the world), the price of everything seems to go up. Gas, food, rent, and so on. But cannabis has remained at $10 because production methods have advanced steadily over the years. As inflation drives the price up, better growing drives the price down, and $10 has been the only price anyone in BC has ever paid for weed, for decades. We developed "price memory" at the $10 level. Anyone charging more was seen as a crook. Anyone charging less sold out quickly.
Black market dispensaries got very popular here about 5 years ago. The city of Vancouver licensed them (for $35,000 per year mind you!), so they could exist despite the federal prohibition. The culture here is entrenched - entire family lines are involved in the cannabis industry. Mom and Pops underground gardens and sales, dispensaries, compassion clubs, medical research, and of course events like 4/20 every year with tens of thousands of attendees. This has kept downward pressure on prices for many years, and recently that $10 price point became a little high. You could get "top shelf" stuff for $12, even $10, and regular (but great) weed found its way to $8.
Legalization
In October, buying cannabis from the government became legal. Their product is horrible, mind you, and extremely expensive ($15 and up). And it's completely sold out, Canada-wide! There's almost no legal cannabis available for sale. Most of the few legal shops are empty. Online vendors are closed up or have nothing listed. The legal industry is at a standstill. When they do manage to get anything to market, it's recalled as moldy and full of mite feces. They simply have no idea what they're doing and they never will. It's like tasking the government with growing the country's only food (and putting anyone in prison if they try to compete). A really, really bad idea.
The impact this is having on legal cannabis is a decrease in supply. Less supply, for something in constant demand, means higher prices. A single pink kush joint goes for 18.99 plus taxes and shipping!
Prices drop in the free market
In the free (called "black") market, prices for cannabis are dropping! That $10 price point is long forgotten now. A really nice gram can be had for $6 or $7 right now (less if you're buying bulk). Mids are selling for $3-5, putting afforable cannabis in the reach of many. Patients with MS, chronic pain, diabetes, epilepsy, alzheimers, parkinsons, opiate addictions, and many other conditions are flocking to the black market!
What I saw when I was part of the 420 Farmers Market here in Vancouver was prices went down and quality went up, across the board. Prohibition is what causes high prices and low quality! Without prohibition, cannabis is safe and cheap. It's the government making it expensive and dangerous!
The first price drop in memory! That's exciting. Oregon's cannabis prices are crashing since their legalization a few years ago! (I reported on that here.) Canada isn't legalizing outdoor growing, so I don't think we'll see a drop as sharp as Oregon has, but prices are DEFINITELY coming down!
Enforcement is coming, though. The dispensary raids are about to accelerate. Only those with licenses (mostly insiders) can sell cannabis legally, and there's a 100k buy-in (at least). The government is very slow to license anyone, adding to the supply shortage. This is all by design, to empower the black market, so they can justify seizing power and clamping down with an iron fist.
The up-side though is lower prices - for anyone willing to go outside the legalized regime.
DRutter