The STEEM Pump That Didn't Even Start

On Coinmarketcap, STEEM is qutoed at $1,8. It wasn't that high since the big jump in June, if I'm not mistaken. So while I think there are reasons to rejoice, I want to point a few caveats.

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First of all, this rise in price is caused 100% by Bitcoin's price surge. Compared with Bitcoin, STEEM actually lost a lot of value since June. Right now it's around 10k satoshis, while in June it was as high as 88k satoshis. So, compared with Bitcoin, STEEM decreased in value 8 times. That's a lot! On the other hand during the last 2 weeks we're seeing volumes comparable with the beginning of June for STEEM, which may indicate the beginning of a bull trend.

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Second, we re witnessing a very interesting SBD pumping, with prices 7 times higher than the intended peg. For those of you not familiar with the internal STEEM currencies, SBD is a sort of a smart contract and it's intended to maintain a 1 to 1 peg to the USD dollar. As long as its price is taken from the witnesses price feed, there's no problem with that, but once it gets out in the wild (open exchanges) it will be subject to normal supply and demand rules (hence, it could be pumped and dumped). The most important effect of this pump is that STEEM compared with SBD got a lot cheaper. You can get as much as 7 STEEM for 1 SBD.

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Third, the upcoming SMT upgrade will provide an unprecedented level of demand for STEEM (because SMTs will be bought using STEEM). By "unprecedented" I simply mean "not yet known", it could be very small or it could be huge.

Fourth, there is already an announcement about a $20 millions investment in SMT oriented startups. This news is less than one month old! If you've been so caught in the recent whirlwind of prices, this may look like it was a few months ago, but it's really less than a month old.

Putting all these into perspective, I have reasons to believe that the STEEM pump didn't even start.

Thoughts?

Disclaimer: this is NOT trading advice, but merely an invitation to speculative thinking.

I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua.