Current Price: ~$8,300
BTC is beginning to display similarities to it’s 1st attempt back into the 12HR cloud in February. Back in February, BTC created a sharp bottom around $6K & managed to break back inside the Tenkan, before climbing it’s way back to the 12HR cloud. Let’s rehash the diagnostics of what happened there to explain what is beginning to shape up now.
12HR:
Step one:
The Chikou (past price indicator) ran into the Kijun & found rejection there.
Step two:
Current price making a gentle slide down the cloud and setting up an edge to edge move.
Step three:
Cloud rejection, edge to edge back down & re-break cloud. Also notice back in Step two, there is a Chikou rejection as well. Meaning past price was unable to hold those resistance levels, contributing to the pullback.
If you are interested in reading more about the 12HR cloud specifics back in February, I have them well documented:
Jump to present day & can see the similarities beginning to take shape. BTC has a rounder bottom this time around & the Kijun is much closer to current price. We can also see that price has begun to test the Kijun for support & passed a few times; indicating that support is being created at these levels, whereas, last time this did not happen before. Finally, the Tenkan is slowly grinding it’s way up and will be tested for a bullish cross.
Prognosis:
This said however, the tale will be told in the Chikou as last time. Currently, the Chikou is below the Kijun, but notice that the Kijun is not as steep this time. If the Chikou is able to pass through the Kijun this time, there is still cloud resistance waiting around (~$8.8-9.2K) and will likely begin an extended consolidation phase inside the 12HR cloud ($7.6-9.2K). In the event that the Chikou becomes rejected again, look for no immediate support till $7.6-8K (bottom of cloud & Kijun), followed by a possible repeat of February.
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