Hello all,
In my research, I've wondered if paydays had any significant impact on demand of cryptocurrencies. The days of interest are 1st, 5th, 10th, 15th, 20th, 25th, 30th, 31st. So, to test my hypothesis, I checked whether these days had significantly higher returns compared to the other days. I focused Bitcoin's closing price (obtained from Coinmarketcap.com) from 12/18/16 to 12/17/17.
The paydays, together, had an average return of 1.639238% per day (not including weekends); while rest of the other days averaged only 0.849431% per day.
However, the result was not significant since the p-value was 0.2288. Generally, a result is considered significant when the p-value is less than .1. A high p-value means there is a lot of variation, perhaps implying that the hypothesis is questionable.
Although not significant, the paydays on average had almost twice the average return of other days. So, perhaps there is some influence on demands from being a payday. Below is a chart by each paydays.
Thanks for reading
Cryptogates
