In my last post I was writing about a critical move approaching in crypto: here. Turns out that post was right about a couple of things:
1/ I said that although the patterns were indicating the critical move to occur around November 5th, I thought it was going to take longer than that, as the patterns looked too tight. Turns out that we had to wait until November 14th before that move occurred.
2/ We now had a decisive move that shows us the direction for the upcoming weeks...or months...
The cards have been revealed and the bears have won. We have seen a bearish break from a descending triangle in Bitcoin that was also supported by the volume. The 55 Exponential Moving Average (yellow) has crossed above the shorter term averages few weeks ago, which is not helping.
Daily MACD that was in symmetrical triangle pattern for all this year has now also broken bearish.
So where are we going to from here? First of all, we're sitting on a bottom of a channel (yellow line) that has been supporting the price as far back as the charts go, see below on the view from Bitstamp that goes back to 2012. We should expect a good level of support here.
If we break the channel, the next stop for BTC is around 4,200 USD, where we have a 200 week moving average support (white line).
Let's hope that the price will bounce of that support and back into the channel. We might even wick to the next line of support, which will be found at 55 EMA monthly (yellow line) at around $3,700.
If price doesn't rebound from these to levels, then we are in trouble. By then, we will have broken weekly and monthly supports as well as a long term bull channel that dates back to Bitcoin conception. I'm a strong believer in crypto and I think it will hold, however we will only know for sure when we get there. In the meantime, I will look at how this move is likely to affect the altcoins in the next post.
