Disclosure: I have Hive and HBD holdings
My expectation is that Hive price will soon crash to near all time lows. This is based on two factors combined: Upbit and the Crypto Bear Market
Fact 1. Upbit Traders Represent 55% of our trade volume across mainstream exchanges.
Fact 2. Upbit holds 68% of Hive across exchanges
Fact 3. Upbit Traders are not Hive users, know very little about Hive and trade almost purely on sentiment.
Despite the high trade volume, almost no Hive accounts interact with Upbit exchange.
We can also determine the low-information of Upbit traders wrt Hive based on past HBD bubbles driven by Upbit traders.
Fact 4.. FTX collapse likely has substantial contagion left to play out
https://twitter.com/SullyCNBC/status/1591132398497845248
- SullyCNBC
https://twitter.com/milesdeutscher/status/1591133147357278208
- milesdeutscher
I do not think the decline in crypto prices so far represents the full extent of the damage triggered by the collapse of FTX.
Conclusion
Sentiment driven traders on Upbit are likely to sell substantial amounts of Hive and HBD as the crypto market collapses further. The demand from people who actually use and or are interested in Hive as a product is unlikely to prevent this, but demand from the community is what will ensure that we recover as crypto projects collapse left and right.