I had a lull in August -- it was a month before NFL season, I wasn't playing MLB DFS anymore, and I had no projects I was working on, so I decided to learn how to trade. I didn't intend on becoming a round the clock crypto trader, but anytime I want to buy or sell a coin, knowing how to trade would come in handy.
I used to think Technical Analysis was pure nonsense. There didn't seem to be anybody who spent time validating chart signals and their observed expectations over time, and I didn't believe that candle analysis or graph shapes had anything to do with the future price. I talked with a few friends who were more experienced traders, and I was recommended a book: Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets by Stan Weinstein.
The book was extremely helpful -- it cut through the noise and focused in on things that really mattered and were backed up by logic. For instance, support and resistance lines: these are important because they indicate areas where people in the market may have previously bought or sold and are a level where someone will begin profiting on a long time hold.
I worked through the book, purchased a year long tradingview subscription, started trading alt coins, and despite a period of time where Bitcoin was booming and alts were getting crushed comparatively, I was overall profiting with my trades. I was losing a small amount on the majority of my trades, but due to disciplined stops and much bigger wins on my good picks, I was able to profit.
Some of my good choices:
-buying LTC at .0116BTC and selling between .016BTC and .0185BTC
-buying PAY at 63k and selling between 96k and 130k satoshis
-picking up ARK at 33k satoshis and selling around 40k (I missed out on the biggest gains though)
-buying OMG at 170k and selling over 200k satoshis.
-buying OMG again at 240k and selling at 270k satoshis.
-buying CVC at 130k and selling at 160k satoshis.
-bought more ETH at .077 and sold what I bought back at .082
-sold 20% of my BTC at $4k and rebought at $3500/$3250/$3000
My bad choices all lost about 10%: QTUM, NEO, XEL, XZC, UBQ, BAT, GAME, ZEC, GNT, and a couple others.
It was really nice having a disciplined system that took emotion out of the equation so that I never second guessed my moves.
The coins I decided to hold and percentages at the time:
And I have tokens from ICOs that aren't selling yet such as tezos.
I also started spending more time reading about pre-sales and pre-ICO tokens with large bonuses that I could buy. These required a different skillset: since you are buying into a team/idea/future valuation, it's more about fundamentals/sentiment than technical analysis. I bought some SALT over the counter, and am an early investor in Bitclaves.
Basically, I stopped doing technical analysis on my existing tokens and let the chips fall where they may. And let me tell you, they did fall.
I sold some there, but then sat on my bag as it fell through multiple supports and eventually ended up below a longtime support of .066.
Instead of selling at a stop loss of .025BTC, I didn't pay attention, held on, and watched it lose 35% of it's value.
I bought some at the arrow at .085, there was a very quick pump up to .1, but it dropped just as quickly. Instead of selling once it fell below support at .083, I held on and watched it lose 35% of it's value.
I sat on the sidelines as OMG fell through 3 support levels. I should have sold at 260k satoshis, instead, it's down about 40% since then.
It's time to start analyzing TA again on my coins, stay up to speed on them, and to have stop losses for everything I don't have in a long term wallet.
I'll probably post a couple analyses a week on my holdings and any adjustments I make to force myself to keep looking at things and not neglect my portfolio again.
My name is Ryan Daut and I am a professional gambler. My interests include dogs, poker, fantasy sports, football, basketball, MMA, health and fitness, rock climbing, mathematics, astrophysics, cryptocurrency, and computer gaming.
