The textbook says rising yields crush tech. The last three months say the textbook is only half right, and Monday's bounce is a good place to see why.
Data as of roughly 8:30 AM Pacific on Monday, October 19, 2026, with US markets in mid session and Friday, October 16 closes as the baseline. Crypto prices are from CoinGecko, sentiment from the Alternative.me Fear and Greed Index, and everything else from Yahoo Finance quotes.
What Moved Since Friday
After the Nasdaq's roughest week in months, buyers showed up this morning. Chip names led the premarket move, and the bounce has held into the session so far.
| Market | Latest | Since Friday close |
|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,596.65 | up 1.75% |
| S&P 500 | 7,728.60 | up 0.90% |
| Dow | 52,129.61 | up 0.24% |
| WTI crude | $97.79 | down 3.57% |
| 10 year Treasury yield | 5.127% | up 2.9 bp |
| VIX | 17.67 | down 11.6% |
| Bitcoin | $82,393 | up 1.6% in 24 hours |
A few details stand out to me:
- Oil gave back some of last week's spike. Front month WTI slipped back under $100 after closing Friday at $101.41, and Brent eased 1.43% to $108.29. That alone takes some pressure off the inflation story.
- Fear came out of the options market fast. The VIX dropped from 19.99 to 17.67, which is a big one day move for a session that is only up about 1% on the S&P.
- Europe did not join the party. The DAX is down 1.54% and the FTSE 100 is down 1.32%, while South Korea's KOSPI rose 1.76% and Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.62%. This looks like a US tech relief move more than a global risk wave.
The Part That Does Not Fit the Usual Story
Here is the contrarian bit. The 10 year yield is higher this morning, not lower, and the Nasdaq is still rallying. If yields were the main thing hurting tech, that combination should not work.
Three months of moving together
Look at the bigger picture in the chart above:
- From July 20 to October 6, the Nasdaq rose about 8.2% while the 10 year yield climbed about 71 basis points, from 4.598% to 5.311%.
- From those early October peaks to Friday's close, the Nasdaq fell about 5.3% while the yield fell about 21 basis points to 5.098%.
So over the quarter, tech and yields mostly traveled in the same direction. Both were riding the same growth and spending narrative, and both cooled off together when doubts about AI infrastructure costs started showing up last week.
But day to day, the old rule still bites
I also ran the daily numbers. Across 64 trading days, the correlation between the Nasdaq's daily percentage move and the daily change in the 10 year yield came out to roughly negative 0.21. That is weak, but it leans the classic way: on a typical day, a jump in yields still nudges tech lower.
The trend tells you what the market believes about growth. The daily noise tells you what it fears about rates. Right now those two signals are pointing in different directions.
My read is that the selloff last week was a growth and spending scare, not a rate scare. That matters, because a rate scare can fade quickly when yields stabilize, but a spending scare usually needs real numbers from earnings to settle it.
Where Crypto Fits
Crypto is bouncing, but it is lagging tech rather than leading it.
- Bitcoin is at $82,393, up 1.61% over 24 hours, down 0.92% over 7 days, and up 1.02% over 30 days.
- Ether is at $2,415.98, up 1.65% over 24 hours but still down 5.28% on the week and 8.77% over 30 days.
- Solana is at $105.08, up 2.95% on the day and down 5.4% on the week.
- HIVE sits near $0.0486, up 1.14% on the day but down 10.77% over 7 days.
Bitcoin dominance is about 59.7%, and total crypto market value is roughly $2.77 trillion. The Fear and Greed Index reads 59, Greed, up from 53 yesterday but well below the 71 it showed a month ago. In plain terms, sentiment has recovered a little, not a lot, and the market is still paying up for Bitcoin over almost everything else.
What I Am Watching Next
- Whether yields above 5.1% start to matter again. If the Nasdaq can keep climbing while the 10 year holds above 5%, that supports the idea that growth expectations, not rates, are in the driver's seat.
- Oil under $100. A sustained move back below that level would ease one of the biggest worries from last week.
- Big tech earnings. Traders are already pointing at reports from names like Netflix, Meta, and Tesla as the real test of whether the AI spending boom is paying off.
- Crypto catching up or falling behind. If Bitcoin cannot keep pace with a tech bounce, that tells me crypto money is still cautious.
The Takeaway
I would not call this morning a turnaround yet. One green Monday after the Nasdaq's roughest week in months looks more like a relief bounce, and the fact that it is happening with yields rising tells me the market cares more about growth and AI returns than about the Fed this week. That cuts both ways. Good earnings could extend the move even with high yields, and disappointing ones could sink it even if yields drop.
Not financial advice, just how I am reading the data this morning.
So here is my question for you: do you think rising yields are still the biggest risk for tech and crypto, or has the AI spending story become the bigger swing factor?
Sources: CoinGecko and Yahoo Finance