I have been noticing the uncanny similarities between last cycle and this cycle. I started writing an obscenely long comment so I am moving that post here to its own for your consideration.
It sure looks to me like we are in for another 2018-2020 bear market. Strap in and accumulate for the next 1008 days. It might go higher in the short term but I think the market will go through its cycle again, and sometime after May 12th 2024's halving we will see another big price rise.
(23/10/2016)
I remember imagining this scenario back then and suspecting it would probably hit 60k and fall down to 30k again, before it goes to 100k+. Now we are in Altcoin season again for sure and I feel a lot better about hodling Hive/HBD than BTC/ETH right now. These are just my personal opinions. I hope it goes higher but if it falls I will be buying.
From Nov 28 2013 to Jan 16 2015 BTC went -81.89% and a similar drop has occurred already this year. Just like clockwork, BTC fell -52.23% to around 30k. If it is determined to fall -81% that could take us down to $11,374.35 USD.
This may be slightly inaccurate, it is an estimation based on highs/lows taken from coingecko during each year. 2012-2021 figures are actual, 2022-2029 are projected. Now if the past cycles repeat, it seems like we are going to have a Bear year in 2022 but 2023 could see BTC north of 480k.
It also seems like Bitcoin will probably hit multiple millions but also crash spectacularly too. Can you imagine BTC dropping 83% from 3.2 million down to 552k? It will be epic.
I will look back to see if this is how it unfolds, and we can all do a little better during this next cycle.
There are two charts above because the first one is based on a 52% drop to 30k ( we hit the bottom), and the second chart is based on the -81% drop that we had in 2015, which would take us down to $11,374. I am therefore forecasting 2 different outcomes following the same pattern of high/low.
Will Bitcoin continue to do this? What is your prediction for 2023?
[ $100 CAD = 0.001817 BTC = 174.397 HIVE on 080821 ]
