QUESTION:
"It is now 2022 and I wonder what the state of Bitcoin technology will be like 2032 and whether there is mass financial adoption or what is referred to as mainstream use by then? What will be the most profound and transformative effects of blockchain technology use?"
Answer:
GPT-J: "It is hard to say for sure, but I have some ideas about what will be a major turning point and what will be less important. I am sure this is just a first attempt at analyzing the impact of the tech. If you have suggestions, do share.
I will write about three scenarios of how Bitcoin could evolve in the coming years. These are the big picture, the mid-term, and the near-term."
The Big Picture
"The Big Picture shows what will likely be the state of things in 2032. By then, many people will have come to view Bitcoin the way people view Facebook today, i.e. a social network that they use to keep in touch with friends and family and for which they pay to use the data generated.
To reach that point, there will have to be significant advances in the technology as well as in the business models that build on top of it. The next major step forward will be the development of decentralized exchanges, something that I have referred to before as the “killer app”. We will all be trading on exchanges, at least for some of the major coins, and probably not using any centralized entity at all for this purpose. The use of blockchains in trading will become the norm, and that will likely be the big business use case."
GPT-J: "A second area that will continue to develop is financial inclusion. Financial inclusion is the process by which developing economies seek to bring in financial services to their underbanked populations. Financial inclusion involves the provision of a complete suite of financial services to the underbanked. Financial services would include savings accounts, credit cards, loans, pensions, etc. As the underbanked population is integrated into the global financial network, we can expect other financial products and services to emerge as well. Examples might include insurance and peer-to-peer lending.
By the time I am writing this, however, it is possible that most people have seen how blockchain technology is being used in the financial services industry."
https://privacypros.io/tools/bitbonkers/
"The second part of my “Big Picture”, will be this:
GPT-J: "By 2032, we will have already seen a major transformation in the nature of the financial services industry. Most financial services are likely to be provided via a decentralized network that is governed and supported by open-source protocols. They will typically run on blockchain technology, and they will be largely built around cryptocurrency-backed economies. There will be the major public utility in cryptocurrency, but private currencies will also thrive, supported by a vibrant developer community.
The big story will not be that these private currencies are used for payments. After all, if we had one or two hundred million people with the ability to pay for goods and services with Bitcoin, this would not be a big deal, would it?
The big story will be the emergence of a multi-billion dollar industry. The major banks and financial institutions may well remain, but for a large portion of their customers, they will be supplanted by crypto-enabled and -backed firms."
GPT-J: "By 2032, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will have matured to the point that we will have an actual working product that is useful and can actually be used for payments. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will have established their reputation and become the de facto currency of the Internet. Other payment rails will have been established, but they will be mostly for smaller sums. Bitcoin-like blockchains will have been established, as have all sorts of other blockchains. In many ways, all the major open source projects for blockchain-based financial services will have come into existence, except for the large centralized systems that have been built on top of them. They have simply not worked yet, so these large centralized systems have not caught on.
Blockchain-based systems will have come into existence, as have all sorts of other blockchains. In many ways, all the major open source projects for blockchain-based financial services will have come into existence, except for the large centralized systems that have been built on top of them. They have simply not worked yet, so these large centralized systems have not caught on. Some of the biggest and most widely-used consumer facing blockchain-based services will have emerged, e.g. e-commerce, social networking, decentralized storage, etc. For some of them, this may be in a pre-release form, as the centralized systems have not yet been fully tested and developed. Still, these centralized systems have not caught on and they will be much smaller than the ones mentioned above. This represents the real potential of what we can achieve in the near future."
(Graphs of the past 24hrs of volume on EtherScan top 50 tokens. https://etherscan.io/tokens )
GPT-J: "By 2032, all these blockchains will have built on one another. It will be possible to move money almost seamlessly from one blockchain to another. This will happen because one blockchain will have built on top of another blockchain, because of a common open source protocol, and because of common developer skills. Each blockchain will be focused on some aspect of finance. Some will be focused on transactions, others on remittance, and so on.
A blockchain-based multi-billion dollar industry will emerge by 2032. This industry will be entirely new. By this time, financial services will have been offered to about five billion people in the world, and many more people will have access to the Internet. This is when we will begin to realize the full potential of blockchain technology in the financial services industry. People will come to expect their financial services providers to be based on blockchains, and this will create the major disruptive challenge to our financial services providers.
What about the big Wall Street banks?
They will be there. They will be in much reduced circumstances."
"How are you feeling today NeuralBlender?"
The Mid-Term
GPT-J: "The mid-term shows what could happen in 2032 and what may happen by 2042. This is less speculative, and it’s based on real events as they will likely unfold over the next several years. The focus is on the blockchain ecosystem, as well as on the technology.
We will have seen the first public exchange based on blockchain technology. This will be important. We will have also seen at least one successful blockchain-based business model, e.g. Steemit. By 2032, this blockchain-based business model will have gained critical mass, as we will have seen its success being used by dozens or even hundreds of others. By the time of writing, it will be clear that the success of Steemit and similar projects is a harbinger for the future."
GPT-J: "These platforms may have created their own currencies. We will then have two or more large, decentralized networks that might actually have value.
Other blockchains may have emerged. These may or may not be as large as these three networks, but one or more of them will be large enough to create real value. There may be private blockchains for some transactions. Still, it will be difficult to distinguish them from centralized blockchain implementations that are not open source."
GPT-J: "By 2040, there will be several large centralized networks that are used extensively. They will be run on top of blockchain technology, but it will be difficult to tell whether the blockchains that are being used are based on open source protocols.
We may have seen the rise of public exchanges. It will be possible to buy and sell Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in public exchanges. We may have seen the rise of other, specialized exchanges. It will be possible to buy and sell other currencies on exchanges.
By 2040, we may see the first public exchanges that will run on top of the blockchain technology. We may see the emergence of centralized networks for some transactions, just as we have seen some centralized exchanges for other cryptocurrencies. But it will be hard to tell whether they are using the same technology as we have seen, or whether they are just running on top of Bitcoin or one of the other public blockchains that have been built in this time period. We will have seen a successful business model based on the technology of a blockchain that is built on top of a public blockchain."
EtherScan top 50 chart of 24hr volume excluding Tether
GPT-J: "One of the most interesting features of the mid-term is that blockchain technology is poised to be the major new factor that will affect our financial systems. We will have seen the first major public exchanges, some of which may be based on blockchain technology, while others may not. Some may run centralized systems, others will be blockchain-based. Some may work with one or two other blockchains, while others will use dozens.
We will have seen the first major business models that are built on blockchain technology. Most of these models will be blockchain-based and will be open source, like Steemit. By 2040, we may have even seen a major public blockchain that is designed to scale to a significant size and that is being built as an experiment."
The far-term
GPT-J: "The far-term vision includes what we can hope for in 2080 and beyond.
It will be obvious that the financial services industry has undergone significant change in the last few years. We have seen huge changes, and more change will come. We have seen the evolution of some public blockchains. We have also seen some experimentation with private blockchains, but I believe that is the limit of this. Private blockchains are difficult to implement and hard to use."
Questioner: "You mentioned about public blockchains. Will this not happen by 2032 or 2040?"
GPT-J: "I believe that most blockchains will be public, because that is much more practical, but that is not the vision. In the far-term, we will see blockchains as being the foundation of a new platform for the entire society. Many companies are already trying to build this new platform. It is too early to say what the impact will be, but one thing is sure: Blockchain-based technology will be ubiquitous."
Author Rewards on this post are being split between @Darkflame, @MyRV, and @AlphaLab my two AI projects. I used TextSynth for queries and NeuralBlender for art. I asked, and was told that it is possible for the two to communicate, so I have some ideas about how that might be applied.