I’ve decided that Wednesdays are going to be dedicated to taking a look at the price action of Bitcoin (BTC) and make some predictions. I figured it’s a good day to do it, see everything from a mid-week perspective, and letting the video I do on Saturdays over on my YouTube channel handle all the end of week analysis.
For the usual disclosure, I am not a financial advisor, I don’t even work in finance at all. My day job is as a telecommunications software engineer. Treat everything you read here as some educational resources and not financial advise.
Taking a look at things from a weekly candle view, the price looks like a head and shoulders pattern forming at my bottom support line at $30,000. This could be an indicator that from here we start seeing a breakout towards a new bull run up.
I don’t actually think this is what we are actually going to see, I think the weekly chart here is being a little misleading, due to the fact we had a flash crash that came out of nowhere, and doesn’t seem to fit the normal price action, so I believe this formation is more of a bull trap. We need to take a look at the more fine grained charts, and account for market manipulations that seem to be occurring recently.
When we look at the weekly chart, starting from the crash, we can see some interesting things. First, we take a look at yesterday, where we set a new lower low of $28,805. This is lower than the previous low back on 19 May of $30,000. But if we look back to 15 Jun, it had just set a new higher high of $41,330, a level it hadn’t been able to reclaim since 21 May.
The corridor seems to be widening, not narrowing as we would hope to see, and does line up with manipulators trying to soak up retail money. We can see that we bounced off the $41,330 level hard and I think that may have also been a bull trap. Let the price creep up enough that people start gaining confidence back in the market and jumping back in, followed by a hard crash all the way to a new low.
We can also see that today we managed to regain some grounds and push up to $34,881, but we got rejected and pushed back hard again. This would seem to indicate that the $35,000 point is becoming a line of resistance. We will need to see if we can maintain our price point that has slowly crept down from $34,000 to $33,000 over the course of the day.
Looking at the hourly price chart, we can see that the price is basically following the almost random price prediction line that I drew during my video on Saturday. I said I actually thought it would take longer to play out, but this is following my line almost exactly.
We can see an obvious down trend occurring. Again, we can see that the price came down under $30,000 support line and got reversed, but we only regained back up to $35,000 before trending sideways for a bit before resuming the downward motion.
This would appear to just be a price correction occurring during the down trend, and I fully expect us to continue the down trend. There does seem to be some resistance over the last couple of hours at the $33,000 dollar line, so it is possible that the price can manage to hold that line.
Bitcoin Dominance had been on the rise recently, following an inverse of it’s price. This would mean that the alts are bleeding, and the market as a whole is currently being affected by the downturn. Hovering just below 50% after getting all the way down to 40% before the crash.
We could be seeing the end of the alt-season as a whole, where only the very strong backed ones will managed to hold, or we could see this trend reverse when the market as a whole recovers. I don’t know that I would be dumping all of my alts just yet, but I also don’t know if this is the time to be dropping a lot of money into the lower cap alts, it may be a far wiser time to be eying increasing your Bitcoin (BTC) holdings Dollar Cost Average style, or at least sticking to the larger and more stable alts.
My prediction now is going to basically mimic what I’ve been saying for that past little bit. There is some obvious market manipulation occurring, some of the volumes involved in some price pushes are quite a bit bigger than all the others, and it seems like it’s classic Wychoff method.
I am expecting us to continue to see the downtrend we are on, with support being lost at the $30,000 line with a bottom line somewhere between $25,000 and $20,000. My hope would be the upper part of that range, but it could get pushed down to the lower parts. If we lose support at $20,000 and fall from there, it’s anyone’s game, because that seems a very dangerous tipping point.
I am expecting that we will see the price bounce around in the $20-$30,000 range for a little bit, followed by an eventual breakout and return to the bull run later this summer. Short term I see a lot of pain and suffering with the price of Bitcoin (BTC) for all the holders, but long term I am strongly of the belief that we will see new highs of upwards of $100,000, before the actual top of the current bull market, which I still believe is going to be late this year into early 2022 before we see the actual top.
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Want some more content right now? Check out some of my previous posts:
Decentralized Finance (DeFi)
Non Fungible Tokens (NTFs)
Decentralized Autonomous Organizations
Originally Posted On My Website: https://ninjawingnut.xyz/2021/06/23/weekly-btc/
