Bitcoin is back testing the 45K region with buyers safely manning the area, allowing for a rebound to the local high of $47300.
At the time of writing, the main cryptocurrency is trading at around $46500.
The market capitalization increased to $ 2154 billion and BTC dominance index at 41%.
Bitcoin showed a good hold of the 45K area, after a slight redistribution from leverage and stop loss fans to Bitcoin hodlers and spot market traders.
Last night's overnight high resolved into a pullback to intermediate support in the $46K area. If Bitcoin holds the level, we can expect selective altcoin growth over the weekend.
From Monday we will have the real test, with Bitcoin having to prove that it has the strength to overcome the resistance at $48000.
If the attempt is successful, the natural target is the psychological threshold of $ 50,000.
On the derivatives front, analysis of funding rates and aggregate long-short ratios show a substantial balance, demonstrating that there is deep uncertainty.
Open interest continues to rise inexorably and has already surpassed levels that have triggered violent pullbacks in the past (7 September and end-December 2021).
We know that when the derivatives market overheats, it is never a good sign.
In the course of time I happened to post more times this table of seasonality, pointing out that, despite the upward and downward trends are obviously due to many factors, seasonality curiously at some point is imposed and is almost always respected.
The underlying reason, I believe, is the fact that after all the flows of buying and selling of large investment funds and banks (which influence more the seasonality, because they always occur in predetermined periods), have a very strong weight on trends.
Based on this, we can assume that April will be a bullish month (it is one of the most bullish of the year, after November-December).
The media narrative supporting these uptrends, at least for the US stock market, could focus on the following topics:
Buybacks by companies of their own shares in the stock market are supporting prices.
Global investor inflows into U.S. markets remain strong due to a lack of alternatives.
Corporate profits, while under pressure, still remain solid.
Inflation, while high, could have a downturn by the end of the year according to some analysts, giving a boost to disinflationary trade.
I forgot the Ukrainian war: a possible de-escalation could also be among the factors supporting the rise of the stock exchanges
This data is literally a threat that the U.S. housing sector is moving against the Federal Reserve.
Rates on 30-year mortgages have risen from 2.75% in December to 4.42% today.
Much of the rise has occurred in the last 3 months, on the heels of the Fed's first short-term interest rate hike.
Mortgage companies are basically telling Powell, "If you allow any more hikes, mortgages are going to go to 5%. And it will be carnage for the industry."
We'll be keeping an eye on the delicate balance that binds monetary policies, inflation and real estate, which in turn affects GDP and is capable of triggering an economic recession.
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