Lets get one thing straight, Market Psychology has not changed between 2014-18 & all of the tech progressions have been priced in, the price has risen with the fundamentals.
So now everyone is wondering when is the bottom? First you need to understand where we are in the market cycle.
The chart shows the stages of where the market has been since the last bubble and where it is at now, Here is a description of the phases.
The Accumulation Phase: This phase occurs after the market has bottomed and the innovators (corporate insiders and a few value investors) and early adopters (smart money managers and experienced traders) begin to buy.
The Mark-Up Phase: At this stage, the market has been stable for a while and is beginning to move higher. The early majority are getting on the bandwagon. This group includes technicians who, seeing that the market is putting in higher lows and higher highs, recognize that market direction and sentiment have changed
The Greed or Late Majority Phase: During this stage, the late majority jump in and market volumes begin to increase substantially. At this point, valuations climb well beyond historic norms, and logic and reason take a back seat to greed. While the late majority are getting in, the smart money and insiders are unloading.
The Distribution Phase: In this phase, sellers begin to dominate. This part of the cycle is identified by a period in which the bullish sentiment of the previous phase turns into a mixed sentiment. Prices can often stay locked in a trading range that can last a few weeks or even months. But the distribution phase can come and go quickly.When this phase is over, the market reverses direction.
Mark-Down Phase: The final phase in the cycle is the most painful for those who still hold positions. Many hang on because their investment has fallen below what they paid for it, behaving like the pirate who falls overboard clutching a bar of gold -2.28% , refusing to let go in the vain hope of being rescued.
I believe the mark down phase is about to get into full swing
Waiting for the Accumulation Phase To Re-enter long positions
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