Looking at the daily we see that BTC has definitely made a turn for the better and is making calculated steps towards breaking its winter slump. MACD crossed the centerline yesterday which allowed for its first attempt at breaking the 12k horizontal resistance. RSI has finally moved above the 50 line and is calmly holding its head above water. The 200 EMA resistance and has now turned into strong future support. The 50 EMA has also been breached and BTC will look to stay above 10.5k (10763 is the current level). Last but not least, price is now tackling both the Kijun as well as the 12k horizontal level. Its important to look at resistance and support levels as zones rather than concrete points as BTC tends to have a mind of its own and does very well to bounce off certain ranges within 2-3%.
Looking at the current position relative to the fib retracements, we see price has failed to close above the 38.2 level at 11,332 (a key area that needs a clean close - unlike the red candle on 2/18) before BTC can gain enough momentum to break through the kumo twist on 3/6.
Volume - We see that the recent uptick in volume can confirm that the bottom is in fact in and I think 5.9k will forever be a historic buying opportunity that we are unlikely to see again.
Based on the 4 Hour we see that BTC has been in a relatively tight channel since hitting its bottom. Recently we see a golden cross of the 50&200 EMA which is a bullish sign. The MACD crossed bearishly high above the centerline which could mean consolidation is in order before the next leg up. Even though there was a slight bearish divergence, we see that price has dipped and as a result the RSI has reset itself. More importantly however we see that a potential hidden bullish divergence is starting as a result of the bearish div reset. Lastly price has failed to cleanly break the 78.6 fib due to a previous horizontal that provided much more selling pressure as bulls looked to take profit preemptively expecting another crash like some twitter "superstars" have predicted.
Optimal Entry: 9850 (Kijun Bounce)/10k psychological level
Likely Range: 10,300 - 10,550
Stop/Loss: 8.9k
Target Profit: 12.5k
Interim Targets: 11.7k, 12k, 12.3k
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