The Northern Sea Route is officially open for 2026 three weeks earlier than last year with the first shipment of sanctioned LNG heading to China. The vessel Christophe de Margerie is a Arc 7 LNG tanker which has the capabilities if sailing through ice up to 2 meters thick.
The problem with the NSR is the ice can be much thicker and there are too few vessels that can transit the route safely on their own power. The Russians have around 41 ice breaking vessels dedicated to tackling the ice, but the majority are too small and are used in rivers and ports. Russia has only 8 nuclear powered ice breakers so having vessels that can sail without needing an ice breaking escort is what is required to open up the NSR for year round trade.
An Arc 7 which Russia has 5 LNG tankers in this class is the highest commercial ice ranked fleet in the world. The Arc 9 class is the nuclear ice breakers themselves and one would imagine that is what will be required for containerships to sail this NSR year round. The Arc 7 interestingly can sail backwards using the ships propellors like a mill grinding through the ice. I would guess this is what the first sailing of the season consisted of as for three days the vessel travelled at 1 knot.
There is not much news around the NSR lately which tells you there are things happening behind the scenes. Putin has put too much importance on this route to succeed for nothing to be happening. Sanctioned oil, gas, coal and fertilizer needs to be exported so Russia needs to find a way through the ice year round and not just for a few months per year. With conflict around the Red Sea the Suez Canal is open, but not as popular like it once was due to vessels having to pay higher insurance costs due to high risks. The route around the Cape is lengthy and costly, but more importantly safe. You have to ask why the NSR is not being used and the answer is quite simple as it is fraught with danger and is not safe.
South Korea has finalized a government tender for a shipping company to sail from Busan to Rotterdam and back. Only one company entered this tender and are currently waiting on a vessel with ice capabilities in order to do the test run. A 3000 TEU container vessel is the test size which will be ready for a September departure. South Korea will do the test run looking at the economics to see if the viability is there or not. They plan to sail a return trip once per season weighing up the costs which include the Russian fees to use their route. Hyundai a South Korean company completed a successful test run back in 2014 and there has been no other trips since.
The NewNew shipping company which is Chinese owned is currently building 5 x 4400 TEU container vessels with an Arc 7 rating. These specialised container vessels will be completed next year and placed into service. The Chinese shipping company has also invested $2.5 billion deepening Murmansk Port in Russia so it will be an ideal container port. The guess is the 5 Arc 7 container vessels will transit between Murmansk and Rotterdam and other Chinese container vessels will link Murmansk and China off loading containers from China and collecting whatever containers were moved here from Rotterdam. This will become a large container hub linking Europe with China.
This has taken time to make the NSR an operational trade route with failed promises by Russia since 2020 where individuals had promised to keep the route open. The problem is the ice and the ice is not shrinking due to global warming as some have predicted and each year is different. Two years ago there was lass ice and last year they had record thicknesses so it depends with so many variables at play.