Timeframe — 1 week!
The cryptocurrency market is highly correlated with the classical markets. BTC and related cryptocurrencies have successfully entered the global economic system. Cryptocurrency is a risky asset, and yes, there are investments in them, and yes, large ones. Since this is a category of risky assets, investors react to them accordingly, this asset class is more sensitive to the general mood in the markets.
A direct pattern is where the S&P500 (an indicator of the stock market and the US markets as a whole) goes there and BTC, where BTC goes and all other cryptocurrencies that are traded on the TOP crypto exchanges.
The exceptions are low-liquid cryptocurrencies that are traded on 1-2-3 exchanges, they do not have a direct price peg to BTC, and the price goes where the developers need.
There is also the "industrial index" Dow Jones, which in itself is a barometer of the US economy (the index includes 30 largest US companies), which, in turn, has an impact on other countries and markets for risky assets, which is relevant in our case.
That is why, whether you like it or not, you will have to take into account these 2 indices in order to strengthen your own positions in trading. This does not mean that BTC will always be correlated, but taking into account the factor of global markets is already a necessity, arguing with this is stupid.
On the chart, you can note an expanding triangle that is directed downwards. 3 full-fledged waves have been formed inside the figure, and probably, after reaching the support of the triangle, the 4th wave will begin to form (below is an example of a similar situation 20 years ago).
It is very likely to see a 10-11% decrease in the index in the near future (more precisely, a correction is in full swing now), this is relatively unimportant from the current ones. With the S&P500 declining by 10%, BTC could drop to the 15k area or lower, the 12-15k range in that area. With a sharp drop in BTC, there will be a collapse in alts, with a gradual decrease, individual alts from the TOP may show growth (those that have already shown such a trend in the recent past).
BTC falls off by 20-25%, alts fall off by 40-60%.
If the support of the triangle is confirmed, and the quote inside the figure goes to resistance, the crypto market will start a bull run, with a high degree of probability. I have very big doubts that cryptocurrencies will begin to break through their historical highs, perhaps some, to suggest that the history of 2021 will now repeat itself. Most likely, these will be local pumps, without rewriting historical highs, in order to both earn money and prevent those who bought on previous historical highs from breaking even, another disappointment, at a time when many will hope to hit a big jackpot. I'm not sure about euphoria, it may not be, rather there will be many hopes that will not come true. Something similar happened in 2019, strong growth, but without rewriting records.
In the event of a correction in the S&P500 from the resistance of the expanding triangle (if everything goes according to this scenario, approximately March-May 2023), the 4th wave will begin to draw, and as the history on this instrument has shown, it is likely that the reversal will occur before reaching the support, because there it will fall very far, approximately the level of March 2020 (corona dump), as for me it is unlikely, it will rather turn around earlier, halfway to support. This is a long term perspective.
Approximately the trends of what I expect, outlined.
Historical data for this index:
A similar situation already occurred in the early 2000s - 4 full waves of correction, then a trend reversal.
This correction was preceded by a 25-year growth cycle of 2500%
The correction from the peak lasted 770 days (bottom), and the recovery to the previous peak took exactly 5 years.
Since that time, economic processes have somewhat accelerated, the waves have become shorter and more impulsive.
Once again, please note that this is a 1 week timeframe.
