US MARKETS - Despite the DJIA; S&P 500 and COMP printing fresh all-time highs on Thursday, the markets gave a bit of that back on Friday to close out the week with mixed results as the DJIA closed out with fractional losses, while both the S&P and COMP registered small gains for the week. With the Greed/Fear factor running at 76 on the Thursday close, it was not a surprise to see the indices pare back a bit. Heading into next week, where earnings will continue to be the focus, it will be interesting to see how the major indices fare. That being said, we sense that the markets may undergo a period of pause and or consolidation, the only question is, will such consist of Time; Price or, a combination thereof? Nevertheless, buyers remain in control of the tape and until or unless we witness a changing of the guard, the benefit of doubt remains in the bull camp, for now.
OIL - Last week we noted that while we still remain of the view that from a longer-term perspective we suspect a retest of the $40 level in crude (and we still do), we also felt that we would witness a bounce into the $47-$49 zone before eventually succumbing to lower levels down the road. Well, we did indeed see WTIC move above the $47 figure in both Wednesday and Thursday trade, albeit, for only a slight moment, as crude finished out the week on a sour note closing with a $45 handle. Despite Friday's drip lower, we continue to believe that we'll witness another run into that $47-$49 area before crude is to start its journey to lower levels, particularly the noted $40 figure.
BONDS - As a repeat of last week, both the 10-Year Note and 30-Year Bond finished the week with gains once again as yields slipped a few more clicks with the 10-Year closing out at 2.23% and 30-Year settling at 2.80%. While both the 10 and 30-Year remain range-bound, we noted last week that, " For the 10-Year to witness lower prices and higher yields, we're going to have to see the 2.65% level 'taken-out' and 'stick', which should such event materialize in the days/weeks/months ahead, would put the 3% level ‘In Play’. On the other hand, should yields on the 10-Year not be capable of the aforementioned, we’ll more than likely be treated to further range-bound action," and continue to remain of such view.
Metals - Last week we noted, "It’s been a tough several weeks for both Gold and Silver (despite a weak $USD) as they’ve lost a bit of their sheen/luster since their early June highs." We also went on to state, "However, both metals were able to put in decent performances this week and closed out with gains. Overall, both require further work in order to see higher levels and despite the recent weakness in the Greenback, neither has been capable of taking the ball for a run up field, thus far." Well, we did indeed see further positive action out of both Gold and Silver in this week's trade, as buyers took the ball and ran with it as both metals finished the week with solid gains with Gold closing out at $1254 and Silver sporting a $16.47 closing print. Whether the past two weeks action in both Gold and Silver are the beginnings of something more meaningful, remains to be seen, and we'll have to await further cards from the deck to be revealed before declaring the 'coast is clear'.
$USD - The $USD remains 'sick', and while not in the ICU ward at this moment, the action has been horrible to say the least as the dollar was once again subjected to meaningful losses this week as the Buck did indeed breach our noted key level of 'potential' support at the 94 figure closing out at 93.97. Moving forward, should the $USD be incapable of turning the tide rapidly, we could witness the 91/92 level come into play quickly. On the other hand, if the greenback can somehow reverse its course and gain some traction, we suspect that it's going to take an awful lot of work in repairing the damage inflicted. Thus, while the patient ($USD) 'appears' to be down for the count at this time, let's see if it can at the very least hold the 91-92 zone and if so, we may just be witness to a stem in tide.
We hope you had a great week of trade and we'll be back later this weekend with some charts and 'potential' set-up's for next week.
Until then, have and enjoyable and fun weekend!
