With the price of Hive going down below 0.04$, it both feels like an opportunity to finally start increasing my Hive Power toward 100k, while at the same time, it feels like just throwing money in the fire as everything just points toward it going down a lot more...
Why Hive Keeps Dumping !!!
Honestly, this is no rocket science as I wrote about it almost a year ago (Link) when the price was 0.2$+ and 5x as high as it is now.
The way I see it, there is only 1 real reason for a very select group of people to buy Hive. Those like me, who have been here for nearly a decade, enjoying the platform and having a genuine blog they intend to keep running going forward have now an opportunity to exponentially increase their stake quite cheaply compared to what it cost some years ago. This in a way where they expect and are fine with the price going a lot lower...
I started cost-average accumulation 2 weeks ago, adding 5k HP weekly as long as the price stays below 0.04$ and until I reach 100k HP.
I have seen some others who are also in accumulation mode like 
The thing is that this accumulatuon simply is no match for the flood of Hive that keeps getting dumped which will keep lowering the price. Just look at the outflows into Binance in the last couple of hours, it's insane but at the same time understandable...
The HBD Peg Sucks Value out of Hive
This I believe is one of the core issues of Hive since the way that HBD keeps its peg is by directly sucking all the value out of Hive which is only accelerating as Hive becomes worth less and less.
There is around 32 Million HBD out there (about 9 Million Circulating Supply) which is being kept at peg by minting and selling Hive constantly while also more HBD is being created out of nowhere from the 10% yearly inflation. It's honestly a small miracle that HBD is staying so close to Peg around 0.94$ and if I personally would hold HBD, I would be running for the exit is quickly as possible as the 10% is like picking up pennies in front of a freight train.
With a lot of HBD creating more and more hive which gets dumped, the inflation pretty much is skyrocketing
You pretty much need to be stupid right now to buy Hive as this problem has no direct solution for as far as I can see. On top of this, there is the DHF who keeps giving out a ton of HBD to projects who also dump as a way to cover costs, while nothing really is bringing in new users. Hive also still has a lot of users who kind of see it as a free lunch without the intention or ability to invest something, ...
How To Fix Hive
Honestly, the only way can see things go up again is if we first go a lot lower and a crypto bull market gives some people too much money which somehow finds it's way into Hive Power getting things back in a positive feeback loop attracting more new users.
Hive also kind of lacks leadership as it's a community-driven chain which just rarely works as there is a lack of actual execution and development as everyone (including myself) are just shouting things while noting significant ever really happens to make things better.
If it were up to me, I would implement some kind of burn System where part of the Author earnings are automatically burned based on the HP or KE Ratio. This would actually encourage users to either invest in Hive Power or Lease some.
Right now, the system pretty much forces votes toward long-term users who have shown to be willing to hold Hive in both good and bad times. Upvoting new members feels like a sure way for the Hive to get dumped sooner than later.
I would love a system where curators can just upvote the 'best content' on which they receive curation rewards as they should since they are properly invested in the platform. While Authors have the payout of their post capped to a certain amount based on the Hive Power they own to encourage them to increase it and to prevent all the value extraction that is going on. At the same time this would also kind of kill the possibility for anyone to grow naturally.
A Positive Note
I guess times of crisis eventually force solutions and even if the value of Hive keeps going down, I do not see any danger that the nodes will stop running. In that regard, at some point there need to be a bottom even though that might not fully be the case as the Hive supply will keep growing. Luckily, there is a haircut rule which makes it so that less Hive is minted than the 1$ value if the hard debt limit is reached. From what grok tells me, in case Hive price would be 0.001$ with 9 Million HBD in circulation (which is just a theoretical worst case scenario) 1 HBD converted would only mint 27 Hive instead of the theoretical 1000 Hive.
Conclusion!
Even though everything points toward a further collapse of the Hive Price, I still started to slowly accumulate more Hive Power as I have been here for nearly 10 years, enjoying the blogging without any expectation of making money from it. Oftentimes, the times when you feel most bearish actually is the time to be most Bullish so I'm willing to waste some more funds on this.
