Earthquake Activity:
In the last three days we have seen HIGH seismic activity across the world, with a total of 18 earthquakes at or above M5.0, and one M6.3 quake.
A total of 8 DEEP earthquakes have been recorded the past three days, which is a decrease from the last update, but is still ABOVE AVERAGE.
Swarms: Major swarms continue in southern Mexico and New Zealand. Both of these on-going swarms were set into motion months ago by large earthquakes that fractured the plate boundaries in both locations. We expect both locations to continue swarming for some time (months to years).
· Over the past three days, 67 quakes have struck in and off the coast of southern Mexico, ranging from M3.0-4.3.
· There have been a total of 182 quakes in and around New Zealand in the past 48 hours. The highest magnitude has been a M5.0 quake that struck in the Cook Strait. Quite a lot of seismic activity has happened in this area over the last two years, but this is the largest quake in this specific area in many months. This is a major increase in numbers of quakes since the last update.
· So far, we have seen a total of 185 aftershocks from the M8.0 [M7.9] earthquake off the coast of Kodiak Island, Alaska, reaching a high of M5.6. The highest magnitude over the past 3 days has been M5.3. The aftershocks have been gradually decreasing in frequency and magnitude, as we would expect.
Yellowstone Status:
The Yellowstone region remains active. Magnitudes in the past three days have reached M4.7. This is the highest magnitude quake to strike the region in many months. This quake and magnitude was forecasted and expected. We are expecting a major re-excitement of the swarm with rising magnitudes over the next 7-10 days, as the seismic pressure transfers southeast from the large M8.0 quake off the coast of Alaska. A new swarm has begun there, after many weeks of relative silence in the area.
Ghost Quakes:
[These are quakes that USGS fails to report or deletes from the public feeds after briefly reporting them. Usually these quakes are heavily censored for political or other non-scientific reasons.]
· None to report.
WATCHES & WARNINGS: (imminent threats for large earthquakes or tsunamis)
· The WATCH for the Ecuador/Columbia border region for a potential M5.5-7.0 has been fulfilled with a M5.7 quake that struck off the coast today, as was forecasted. The location, time frame, and magnitude range were spot on. The location of the strike is just to the north of the Ecuador/Columbia border and south of Panama.
· An extended WATCH is now in place for the next 21 days for the eastern Caribbean, including Haiti, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands for a potential M6.2-7.2 quake. This is a long-range forecast, and with a time frame that is not typical for my forecasts.
· A continuous WATCH remains in place for the Pacific Northwest, along and west of Highway 5, including the cities of Vancouver, Victoria, Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Salem, Eugene, Grants Pass, Medford, as far south as Redding, CA, especially along the coast. This is an on-going slow-slip event, and when it eventually quiets down, we will watch for a potential catastrophic quake in the M8.4-9.1 range to occur, most likely off the coast. An earthquake striking off-shore in this forecasted magnitude range will cause a tsunami, which will have as much or more effect than the devastating damage of the quake itself.
QUAKE REPORTS: (new earthquakes occurring since the last Quake Update)
USA – M2.5 and greater earthquakes Directional portion of the state indicated in ( ).
Magnitude Location
ALASKA:
Aftershocks continue from the M8.0 quake that struck off the southwestern coast of Kodiak Island, Alaska. The highest magnitude aftershocks over the past three days have been M5.3 and M5.0.
M5.1, M4.3 Fox Islands, Aleutians (W)
M4.3 NE of Anchorage (S)
M3.6 Fox Islands, Aleutians (W)
M3.1 NE of Anchorage (S)
M3.0, M2.9 NW of Juneau (SE)
M3.0, M2.7 Northwest Alaska (NW)
M3.0 Kenai Peninsula (S)
M2.7, M2.7 Northern Alaska (N)
M2.7 West of Valdez (S)
M2.6 Andreanof Islands, Aleutians (W)
M2.6 SW of Tok (S)
CALIFORNIA:
M5.8, M5.1 NW coast of California (NW)
M4.0 SW of Riverside (S)
M3.4 SE of Los Angeles (S)
M3.2 East of Coalinga (C)
M3.1 North of Palm Springs (S)
M3.1 East of San Bernardino (S)
M2.9 SE of San Jose (C)
M2.8 SW of Gilroy (C)
M2.7 SE of Mammoth Lakes (C)
M2.7 NW of San Luis Obispo (C)
M2.6 NW of Hollister (C)
M2.6 SE of Redding (N)
M2.5 SE of Coso Junction (C)
OKLAHOMA:
M2.9 SW of Fairview (NW)
M2.5 NW of Blackwell (N)
M2.5 SW of Waynoka (NW)
OTHER U.S. & NEARBY REGIONS:
· Idaho M4.7, M3.5, M3.3, M2.7 South of Soda Springs (SE)
· Puerto Rico M3.3, M3.2, M3.1, M3.0 Off-coast Puerto Rico (N)
· Texas M3.0 SE of Lubbock (W)
· Hawaii M2.6, M2.6, M2.5 Hawaii Island (N)
· Washington M2.6 SE of Seattle (NW)
M2.6 SE of Tacoma (NW)
· Ohio M2.6 SE of Columbus (SE)
· Utah M2.6 SW of Salina (SW)
· Washington M2.5 Olympic Peninsula (NW)
International – M4.9 and greater earthquakes
.
· M6.3 and M5.1 quakes struck off the coast of Papua New Guinea, near the recently erupting Kadovar volcano.
· A DEEP M5.7 quake struck near Fiji, at a depth of 610 km. It was followed by a DEEP M5.0 quake, at a depth of 626 km. We now watch for a M6.7-7.7 quake to occur in the next 7-10 days, as the seismic pressure spreads outward. This will also re-excite the swarm with higher magnitudes in New Zealand.
· A M5.7 quake struck off the coast of the Ecuador/Columbia border, south of Panama, exactly as forecasted. This fulfills the forecast for this region.
· A M5.3 quake struck in the Molucca Sea, Indonesia.
· Two M5.2, M5.1, and M4.9 quakes struck on the northeastern coast of Venezuela.
· A M5.2 quake struck at the Indian Ocean Triple Junction.
A M5.1 and two M4.9 quakes struck off the eastern coast of Kamchatka, Russia, near the western tip of the Aleutians, as a follow-up and in the same location as the larger M6.2 quake that struck there a few days ago. A swarm has broken out there now.
· A M5.1 struck the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge, east of the Virgin Islands.
· A M5.1 quake struck off the coast of Honshu, Japan.
· A M5.0 quake struck near Ascension Island, on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.
· A M5.0 quake struck off the coast of Mindanao, Philippines.
· A M5.0 quake struck the Cook Strait, in central New Zealand, as was forecasted. This is the largest quake to strike that area in many months.
· A M4.9 quake struck in Tarapaca, Chile.
SEISMICALLY ACTIVE AREAS: (highest magnitudes reported since the last update)
USA - including U.S. territories
· Alaska Active; magnitudes to M5.1.
· Northern California Active; magnitudes to M5.8.
· Southern California On-going swarms; magnitudes to M4.0.
· Yellowstone region Active; magnitudes to M4.7.
· Nevada Active; magnitudes below M2.5.
· Northern Oklahoma Active; magnitudes to M2.9.
· New Madrid, Missouri region Active; magnitudes below M2.5.
· Hawaii Active; magnitudes to M2.7.
· Caribbean region Active; magnitudes to M3.4.
· Guam/Mariana Islands region Quiet.
International
· Southern Mexico Active; magnitudes to M4.2.
· Northern Chile Active; magnitudes to M4.9.
· Central Chile Active; magnitudes to M4.9.
· Iran Active; magnitudes to M4.6.
· Turkey Active; magnitudes to M3.2.
· Greece Active; magnitudes to M4.1.
· Italy Active; magnitudes to M2.6.
· Romania Active; magnitudes to M3.5.
· Switzerland/CERN Active; magnitudes to M2.5.
· Fiji region Active; magnitudes to M5.7.
· New Zealand region Active; magnitudes to M5.0.
· Papua New Guinea region Active; magnitudes to M6.3.
· Philippines Active; magnitudes to M5.0.
· Taiwan region Active; magnitudes to M4.5.
· Indonesia region Active; magnitudes to M5.9.
· Japan region Active; magnitudes to M5.1.
WATCH AREAS: (7 days) Forecasted Magnitude Range Actual
USA (blue font represents new forecast areas and/or updated magnitudes)
Pacific Northwest (extended time frame) M8.4-9.1 ------
Off the coast of northern California M5.7-6.4 M5.8
Central to southern California M4.7-5.7 M4.0
Mount St. Helens M3.0-3.6
Yellowstone region M4.4-5.4 M4.7
Colorado M4.4-5.4
Texas M4.3-5.4
Northern Oklahoma/Kansas border region M4.6-5.7
New Madrid, MO seismic zone M3.2-4.2
Caribbean: Haiti/Puerto Rico to the Virgin Islands M5.9-7.2 -------
International
Southern Mexico M4.3-4.8 M4.2
Galapagos to Ecuador region M5.6-6.7 M5.7
Northern Peru M6.0-6.4
Northern Chile M5.5-6.4
Valparaiso, Chile region M5.6-6.7 M4.1
New Zealand region (on-going) M5.0-6.0 M4.9
Solomon Islands to Vanuatu/New Caledonia M6.7-7.7
Java, Indonesia M5.0-5.4 M5.0
Japan (off-coast) M5.0-5.3 M5.1
Kuril Islands M5.4-5.9
Kamchatka, Russia M6.1-6.4 M6.2
Nepal/India/China border region M5.1-5.5
Iran M5.2-6.2 M4.6
Turkey M5.0-5.4
Italy M3.7-4.2 M4.0
Gibraltar M3.6-4.0
North Pole region M4.9-5.9 M4.4
South Sandwich Islands M5.0-5.6 M4.8
SEISMIC FORECASTING PRINCIPLES:
When a portion of a tectonic plate begins to respond to incoming seismic pressure, the first indicator to watch for is volcanoes (dormant or active) begin having small quakes strike far below in the magma chambers. This is the case, for example, in California, on a nearly weekly basis. Seismic pressure typically comes into California from off the coast to the northwest – as with the transferring pressure from the M8.0 quake off the coast of Alaska. It presses on the North American plate, and the first indicators are the dormant volcanoes across much of the eastern part of the state begin to show seismic activity with multiple swarms of micro-quakes. By mapping the locations and depths of these small quakes, we can “see” the pressure is coming into the state.
Secondary indicators are geo-thermal operations being hit with quakes. Then, thirdly, we see gas, oil, and fracking operations begin swarming, including in some cases, off-shore drilling. This order of indicator quakes reflects the order of relative depth. Magma chambers respond first, because they are generally the deepest points in the crust (compared to the others). Next, geo-thermal wells begin seeing small earthquakes, and then gas and oil pumping operations, which are somewhat shallower penetrations into the crust. Finally, we see quakes occur along fault lines. When we see all of this happening at once, then we know to expect a moderate to major quake to occur off the northwest coast of California, along or near to the Gorda Escarpment (undersea plate boundary). This is the repeated cycle that generally occurs week after week in California.
I use the illustration of a mole burrowing underground. You can’t see the mole, but you can see the displaced dirt and know which direction it is moving. The little mounds that appear along the underground pathway are like the earthquakes that occur. One mound does not “cause” another mound to appear, it is the movement of the mole – the source of the underground force that cannot be seen. In like manner, one earthquake does not cause another earthquake, it is the unseen force of seismic pressure moving under the ground that causes the next quake. If we know the general pattern, pathway, and direction of pressure transfer, we can determine a probable location for the next strike.
PREP TIPS:
Since so many people have requested information on how to prepare for an earthquake, I have begun a new section this week which will focus on specific aspects of preparation for such an emergency. Watch this section for basic tips on what to do in the event of a major earthquake. Train your children on what to know what to do, and conduct regular surprise practice drills. Many of these tips will apply to other types of natural disasters as well. I will try to respond to any questions you may have in this regard.
Places To Avoid (or get out of and away from immediately) for safety reasons in the event of a large earthquake:
· Brick buildings – falling brick, crumbling structures, debris
· Concrete block buildings – falling concrete, crumbling structures, debris
· High-rise or multi-story buildings – crumbling structures, falling debris
· Elevators – may become inoperable between floors and you become trapped
· Fireplaces, chimneys – falling rock and brick
· Bridges and overpasses – unsafe roads, crumbling infrastructure
· Tall towers and water towers – falling structures and debris
· Booster stations (natural gas) – fires and explosions
· Gas stations – fires and explosions
· Downstream of dams – flash flooding
· Coastal areas/beaches – tsunami threat
· At the bottom of ravines or on steep hillsides - mudslides or avalanches
If you are looking to move, purchase a home, business location, or real estate in a quake prone area, then proximity to such locations should factor into your decision-making process.
In your daily commute, you should make a mental note to identify the above places along your route, and map out alternate routes to and from work or school that are in safer areas. Then do some practice runs. Time yourself and know how long it takes to get to and from priority locations. But remember, if there is debris and traffic, it may take much longer to navigate.
I share here a story from my neck of the woods: A cousin of mine survived a devastating tornado that destroyed nearly his entire town. He got in his pickup to drive out, as soon as the tornado passed, but got four flat tires within 2 blocks of his residence because of all the debris (broken boards, glass, nails, pieces of tin, and concrete).
You do have a spare tire, don’t you? You do know where the spare tire is located, and how long it takes to get it out, don’t you? You do know how to change a tire, don’t you? You do know how long it takes to change a tire on the road, don’t you? You do know if your spare is fully inflated, don’t you? You do know where the jack is and how to operate it, don’t you? You have taught your wife and kids these things, right?
Tow trucks won’t likely be available in a crisis. AAA won’t be much use when they are overloaded with calls. You do have a backpack with basic essentials in your vehicle at all times, in the event you may have to abandon your vehicle and walk out of harm’s way, don’t you?
If you answered “no” to any of these questions, then you have work to do. You’ll thank me later. If you don’t, you’ll panic – guaranteed. Panic is for people who don’t prepare. Which kind of person are you?
NEWS, LINKS & RESOURCES:
New Beverly Hills-Santa Monica fault discovered in California:
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-beverly-hills-santa-monica-fault-20180124-htmlstory.html
Disclaimer: These earthquake forecasts are dependent upon accurate data published on public feeds by official reporting agencies, including USGS, PNSN, EMSC, and others. If the data is inaccurate, incomplete, or censored, then any interpretations of this data will be subject to error. I take no responsibility for these agencies’ inadvertent or purposeful obfuscation of factual data. Some of these agencies have repeatedly proven to be unreliable in their reporting and frequently deceptive, so, as the saying goes, “garbage in, garbage out” may well apply.
If you have eye witness “felt it” reports of earthquakes or volcanic activity in your home area or where you are traveling, please send a descriptive report via e-mail. Please send any photos you may have of such events or aftermath damages also.
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Quake Updates generally are published every 3-5 days, and Breaking News reports related to significant earthquakes are sent out via e-mail as the events unfold.