Y'all started digging fallout shelters yet? Probably too late for that anyway. Bloody chekist bastard finally pulled the trigger it looks like. Ever since the festivities started in Ukraine I've done little but refresh news sites and text people about it, figured I might as well blog about it too.
Saw that Putin was reminding everybody that Russia is a nuclear armed state, which I thought was a bit rich, even for him. See, back when the Soviet Union collapsed the successor states inherited the old Red Army's equipment in each country and overnight Ukraine became a nuclear power. Nobody really wanted this so a deal was worked out where Russia got the nukes back in exchange for Russian guarantees of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. Guess we can all see just how much that was worth...
'Don't interfere, we've got nukes!' is even funnier when you consider that there is almost certainly a US Navy Ohio-class parked somewhere close enough so's it's SLBMs flight time to Moscow is measured in single digits. It occurred to me today that I may have to reconsider my opinion of George W. Bush, pulling out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty may prove to be the smartest thing he ever did.
Honestly, I'm more than a little surprised ol' Vlad went through with it. I'd suspected that he was mostly ginning up a war scare to suppress internal dissension. Near as I can tell there's nothing he stands to gain from this that will outweigh all the consequences of invading. Judging by the beating the ruble and the Russian economy took today, I'm betting it won't take long for that to start to bite.
The thing is, Putin's grip on power is dependent upon the oligarchs being happy and all of this seems likely to accomplish the opposite. The only way any of this makes sense is if he's attempting to imitate the French after World War II and trying to regain an empire that has ceased to exist. Judging by his remarks yesterday that seems more likely than I would have thought possible. We all know how that turned out for French, maybe Putin will get his very own Dien Bien Phu...
On a more granular level, it should be quite interesting to see how the weapons, technology, and tactics play out in this war. Both sides are largely equipped with modernized versions of old Soviet hardware, and although Russia's military is far larger, Ukraine is receiving more advanced western weaponry along with Turkish drones.
The Russians invaded Georgia back in 2008 using essentially the same pretexts and although they were ultimately successful, they suffered a lot more casualties than they'd anticipated. The nasty surprise they received at the hands of the western trained and equipped Georgian military prompted the Russian military to modernize but even now only a fraction of the troops presently invading have been upgraded. Side note: During the invasion of Georgia the Georgian military's air defense units shot down multiple Russian warplanes. Guess who sold (and quite possibly were manning) those air defense systems to the Georgians? Pat yourself on the back if you said the Ukrainians.
Historically the Russians and Turks have been adversaries and recent history has been no different. In both the Syrian and Libyan civil wars they've backed opposing sides (Putin backed the regime using chemical weapons on it's own citizens, the Turks backed Daesh in it's early stages and al-Nusra) and in both cases the Turkish backed forces were able to fight the Russian led ones to a stalemate. Turkish drone warfare, refined by over a decade of warfare, is largely responsible for this. Guess who else the Turks sold those drones to? The Ukrainians and the Azeris. The Azeris put theirs to use last year and the Armenians really did not enjoy the experience. Like Ukraine and Russia, the Azeri and Armenian militaries were equipped with old Soviet hardware, but the Azeris had Turkish and Israeli drones which tore hell out of the Armenian forces.
The Crimea was under Turkish control back in the days of the Ottoman empire, before the Russians took it from them, so it's hardly surprising Erdogan was outraged by Vlad's invasion. I've heard reports of a Turkish ship getting bombed near Odessa so don't be surprised if the Turks take an active role in this conflict too.
Putin seems to be trying to bully his way into keeping this a limited war while the Ukrainians give every indication of preparing for total war. Russia has over three times the population of Ukraine so it should be interesting to see how that plays out. The US Secretary of Defense has already said that the support we would give Ukraine in the event of an invasion would make our efforts to aid the mujahideen in Afghanistan against the Soviets seem mild. If this proves to be the case the Russians will have a tough row to hoe. The Ukrainians already have the Stingers that the mujahideen used to such great effect and Javelins antitank missiles to boot. Those cost a lot less than the things they destroy, which adds up to bad news for Vlad in a protracted conflict.
Vlad followed his usual playbook and led things off with cyberattacks, who wants to make bets on how many new zero day exploits we will be finding out about the hard way in the coming days? Both the US and Russia have the capability to cause incredible havoc with cyberattacks and the willingness to execute them, I'll be surprised if there's not a lot more of that here soon. If that happens, the effects won't be confined to Ukraine. Who's ready to go back to the analog days?
A common rule of thumb in warfare is that you need a 3:1 advantage in numbers when attacking to be successful. Technology can reduce that somewhat but from everything I've seen Putin hasn't come close to assembling those kind of numbers. Seems like a good recipe for a protracted conflict... Only time will tell but my money is on the Ukrainians, in ten rounds.
With all the talk of strategy, tactics, and hardware it's easy to lose sight of the human angle of all this. Saw that there's already 100,000 people displaced by the fighting and that number is only going to skyrocket. Does anyone know of anything being organized here on hive to help people in Ukraine? What about anybody posting from the conflict zones? I know at least one of my followers is in Ukraine (
This has been my half baked take on the present situation. Now to wait a year and see how wrong I was. If you agree, disagree, just want to point out what I'm wrong about or left out, drop me a comment and let me know what you think.
To all the Ukrainians out there on the frontlines, may your aim be true and your ammo plentiful. To the rest of y'all, stay safe!