Technology Will Soon Devastates 3.5 Million People
How Robots will Displace Millions of Workers Very Soon
Photo Credit: Mentor Graphics
Just about all of us have heard or read about the Tesla Self-Driving Car software upgrade. Tens of millions of us, watch television commercials featuring cars that parallel park themselves or automatically stop if they detect a pending collision with another car or a pedestrian.
Not only is this technology real, you can actually walk (or drive) down to your local car dealer and buy it today. What was Science Fiction a few short years ago, is now just another consumer product.
Photo Credit: Chevrolet
Saving Lives, Reducing Costs and a Better Quality of Life
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Very, very soon, people will be relegated to mere passenger status, as the cars will be doing most of the driving. If it all works as planned; less people will die or be injured in auto accidents and property damage will be reduced.
Everything we need to make this a reality is here now. Technology has the ability to take over all the driving from destination to destination. As we move forward, actually driving your car will become a rarity.
The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
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Just in the United States alone, over 35,000 people were killed and another 2 Million were injured in 2016 alone. If you including property damage and medical costs, etc., the total of the Butcher's Bill was around $432 Billion USD.
To put this in perspective, in 10 years of the Vietnam War, around 58,220 servicemen & women were killed in total. In just one year, 1972, over 54,000 auto fatalities occurred in the U.S. plus many more injured.
Photo Credit: Stage 1 Physics
Saving lives should always be our top priority as a species, whenever possible. Where the benefits outweigh the risks, we proceed as best we can and begrudgingly accept the undesired outcomes, including death. This has been true throughout human history, for the most part.
Droning on about Drones
Photo Credit: Amazon
While much has been made about companies like Amazon testing drones that will be capable of home package delivery. No one wants to have their kids or the family cat bisected by robot controlled rotor blades.
The wide variety of differences in people's homes and front porches are going to make successful drone delivery very, very challenging. Besides safety, public resistance to the prospect of a world in which millions of drones literally block out the Sun each day, is going to be a hard sell. The public doesn't want increased noise pollution and apparent chaos in the skies.
Photo Credit: FedEx
For the time being, your local FedEx, UPS and Pizza Delivery Driver will have jobs in our society. However, not all truck drivers are created equal.
Over the Road Drivers and The Last Ride into the Sunset
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Right now there are around 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the United States. Around 10% are what is termed Owner/Operators and the rest are Corporate Employed Drivers. They operate 3.6 Million Class 8 trucks, hauling 11.7 million trailers.
Over the Road Drivers account for around 69% of all freight tonnage and can drive for 11 hours, before taking a legally required 10 hour break. On average they are away from home around 300 days a year and average 70 hour work weeks.
Drivers have been in short supply for many years and around 24,000 positions go unfilled each year. Salaries can range between $35,000 to $89,000 per year. Since drivers basically, "Live in their Trucks", many are able to save vast amounts of money each year.
The cost of employing truck drivers accounts for 34% of freight costs
For most people, being on the road for such long periods of time is completely unappealing. This accounts in part for the many unfilled jobs as does drivers who are simply dismissed or not hired because of liability concerns.
Compounding the shortage of drivers is the fact that the existing workforce is either dying or retiring faster than they can be replaced. The medium age of truck drivers is around 49 years old, while some private fleet operators report average ages of 52 years old. In contrast the average American worker is only 42 years old. Women also make up less than 6% of drivers, verses 47% of the overall workforce.
Its all about the Benjamin's
Photo Credit: U.S. Treasury
The trucking industry is one of the most efficient and cost conscience industries in America. Talk to a Fleet Manager about a technology that will save him 1/32nd of a cent per mile and he just might name his next child after you. Cost is everything, as it is the difference between making money or going out of business.
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The chance to save 34% or (likely) more, will be immediately adopted. Unlike drones and home delivery drivers, Over The Road Truck Drivers, travel from loading dock, to loading dock, which are standardized and easily mapped out. Since commercial "landing" areas are easily controlled, compared to residential areas, safety and insurance cost should both improve.
Photo Credit: Truque
Since a self-driving truck doesn't need to stop to eat, sleep, etc., companies will be able to get more out of their fleets, which cannot operate 24/7 today. Elimination of the crew cab will free up room for more bulk freight per truckload, while remaining in compliance with traffic regulations governing overall truck length..
The elimination of 3.5 million jobs, plus many supporting jobs is absolutely 100% guaranteed.
The speed at which this transition will occur will be rapid. Domestic Class 8 Truck manufacturing capacity is around 280,000 new trucks a year and can be expanded if demand warrants it. Because of greater availability of operating 24/7, less trucks will likely be needed as replacements for the current fleet.
Killed by Robots
Photo Credit: Plugged In
Even though self-driving cars and trucks will kill people, either through technical malfunctions or human error, the death toll will likely be far lower than than current human piloted vehicles.
In the United States, approximately 9,000 to 10,000 traffic deaths occur because the driver was in some way alcohol-impaired, while driving.
These alcohol-impaired drivers accounted in 2014, for around 31% of all traffic-related deaths in the United States, according to the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Of those killed, around 1,000 were children under 14 years of age.
Welcome to the Future
Photo Credit: furiousdriving
Unlike the deployment of robots, to replace and augment workers in traditional factories, which required adaptation and customization for each product and industry, driver-less trucks will be easier to adopt.
For the most part, a car is a car and a truck is a truck. Although the underlying technology to make a vehicle self-driving relies on sophisticated computers, cameras, radar sensors and satellite links, there actually isn't a lot of difference between vehicle types that needs to be considered when adopting this technology.
This will make implementation faster and cheaper, than say converting a toaster factor to 100% robotic operation. Lack of customization will lower the costs and speed implementation.
Over 3.5 million people will lose their jobs. An entire industry and way of life will change forever and the change will occur almost instantly. Truck Stops and supporting staff; from waitresses, station attendants and RV driving prostitutes, will fade into our collective memory. Country Music Stars will have one less thing to sing and cry about.
Buckle Up - The Future Has Arrived
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