Several days ago began the general sale of Chaos Legion packs in Splinterlands, and as every player I did not hesitate to buy packs to see if I got good cards, as well as to enjoy the excitement and adrenaline that opens a pack. But let's not forget that beyond the fun, Splinterlands is a game to make money, so we are talking about investments, assets that produce profitability.
In that sense, I want to talk a bit about how my experience was, my gains and losses, and analyze if it is worth buying packs or buying cards separately in the market, taking into account that I am a low-budget player.
With 50$ I could buy 12 packs of Chaos legion, but at the end of the day I decided to buy only six in this opportunity, and save some of the remaining money for a later strategy, or continue buying packs depending on the cards obtained.
Next I will show what I got in the 6 packs, and I will add 1 pack that I bought with a voucher during the first round. In total there have been 7 packs, an investment of 46 dollars, 39.65 hive as of today 19-01-22 (Price of hive 1,16$ according to Huobi).
In total I got 35 Chaos legion edition cards, 26 common (7 repeats and 1 gold), 8 rare, 1 epic and 0 legendary.
Adding up the price of all the cards, I can quickly draw a profit and loss analysis, although at first glance we already know the result, but mathematically speaking let's see exactly how I did in this investment.
| Card | Card price in the market | Rarity | Quantity | Total ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XENITH ARCHER | 0.15 | RARE | 1 | 0.15 |
| SCAVO HIRELING | 0.12 | COMMON | 1 | 0.12 |
| SUPPLY RUNNER | 0.09 | COMMON | 2 | 0.18 |
| CURSED WINDEKU | 0.67 | RARE | 1 | 0.67 |
| CRYPT BEETLE | 0.05 | COMMON | 1 | 0.05 |
| RIFTWING | 0.10 | COMMON | 1 | 0.10 |
| CARRION SHADE | 0.04 | COMMON | 1 | 0.04 |
| PELACOR ARBALEST | 0.33 | RARE | 1 | 0.33 |
| TIME MAGE | 0.32 | RARE | 1 | 0.32 |
| CHAOS KNIGHT | 0.06 | COMMON | 1 | 0.06 |
| BLINDING REFLECTOR | 0.04 | COMMON | 2 | 0.08 |
| STICH LEECH | 0.16 | COMMON | 1 | 0.16 |
| SUNKAI HARVESTER | 0.04 | COMMON | 1 | 0.04 |
| GARGOYA SCRAPPER | 0.04 | COMMON | 3 | 0.12 |
| REGAL PERYTON | 0.26 | RARE | 1 | 0.26 |
| MYCELIC SLIPSPAWN | 0.33 | RARE | 1 | 0.33 |
| HILL GIANT | 0.04 | COMMON | 1 | 0.04 |
| VENARY KNIFER | 0.06 | COMMON | 2 | 0.12 |
| DIEMONSHARK | 0.40 | RARE | 1 | 0.40 |
| DEEPLURKER | 0.21 | COMMON | 1 | 0.21 |
| CRUEL SETHROPOD | 0.05 | COMMON | 2 | 0.05 |
| KULU SWIMHUNTER | 0.05 | COMMON | 2 | 0.10 |
| HARDY STONEFISH | 0.05 | COMMON | 1 | 0.05 |
| DJINN INFERNI | 1.57 | EPIC | 1 | 1.57 |
| DJINN APPENTICE | 0.15 | RARE | 1 | 0.15 |
| RADIATED BRUTE | 0.06 | COMMON | 2 | 0.12 |
| RADIATED SCORCHER | 0.04 | COMMON | 2 | 0.08 |
| SCAVO CHEMIST | 1.21 | GOLDEN COMMON | 1 | 1.21 |
| GRAND TOTAL: $7.11 | INVESTMENT: $46 | PROFIT: $0 | LOSSES: $ -38.39 |
Unfortunately I did not make a profit, and made an estimated loss of $38.39 on my purchase of 7 packs of Chaos Legion.
Finally, I must consider that 0.28% is the probability of receiving the 11 cards via airdrop, a probability that increases for each player based on the amount of packs purchased in the first 24 hours of the general sale, in my case with 6 packs purchased I have a slight probability of 1.71% of receiving any of the cards via airdrop.
What will be the next step?
.With this experience and loss of capital, I have concluded that in my case the best strategy to follow is to buy cards separately in the market, buying packs is good if you buy high quantities, but for low budget players it is better to get cards separately, with this investment of $46 I could have bought several cards from other editions, which have more power than the new Chaos Legion and thus move up the league without renting. From now on this will be my strategy to follow.
I remind you that this is my experience and personal decision, investing in odds is a risky bet, there are those who buy a pack and receive legendary cards and get a return on their investment, but these are other cases, if you are one of them I would like to read you in the comments, and if it happened to you like me, I encourage you to share your "Chaos".
Thanks for reading
The cover is my own made in Adobe Photoshop, the images of the cards are from my Splinterlands account.
If you want to start playing you can do it here馃憞
https://splinterlands.com/?ref=cjlugo
--------**ESPA脩OL**--------
Una apuesta arriesgada a la probabilidad
Hace varios d铆as comenz贸 la venta general de packs de Chaos legion en Splinterlands, y como todo jugador no dud茅 en comprar packs para ver si consegu铆a buenas cartas, as铆 como para disfrutar de la emoci贸n y adrenalina que supone abrir un pack. Pero no olvidemos que m谩s all谩 de la diversi贸n, Splinterlands es un juego para ganar dinero, por lo que estamos hablando de inversiones, de activos que producen rentabilidad.
En ese sentido, quiero hablar un poco de c贸mo fue mi experiencia, mis ganancias y p茅rdidas, y analizar si vale la pena comprar packs o comprar cartas por separado en el mercado, teniendo en cuenta que soy un jugador de bajo presupuesto.
Con 50$ podr铆a comprar 12 packs de la legi贸n del caos, pero al final decid铆 comprar s贸lo seis en esta oportunidad, y guardar parte del dinero restante para una estrategia posterior, o seguir comprando packs dependiendo de las cartas obtenidas.
A continuaci贸n mostrar茅 lo que consegu铆 en los 6 packs, y a帽adir茅 1 pack que compr茅 con un voucher durante la primera ronda. En total han sido 7 packs, una inversi贸n de 46 d贸lares, 39,65 hive al d铆a de hoy 19-01-22 (Precio de hive 1,16$ seg煤n Huobi).
En total he conseguido 35 cartas de la edici贸n de la legi贸n del caos, 26 comunes (7 repetidas y 1 de oro), 8 raras, 1 茅pica y 0 legendarias.
Sumando el precio de todas las cartas, puedo sacar r谩pidamente un an谩lisis de ganancias y perdidas, aunque a simple vista ya sabemos el resultado, pero matem谩ticamente hablando veamos exactamente c贸mo me fue en esta inversi贸n.
| Card | Card price in the market | Rarity | Quantity | Total ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XENITH ARCHER | 0.15 | RARE | 1 | 0.15 |
| SCAVO HIRELING | 0.12 | COMMON | 1 | 0.12 |
| SUPPLY RUNNER | 0.09 | COMMON | 2 | 0.18 |
| CURSED WINDEKU | 0.67 | RARE | 1 | 0.67 |
| CRYPT BEETLE | 0.05 | COMMON | 1 | 0.05 |
| RIFTWING | 0.10 | COMMON | 1 | 0.10 |
| CARRION SHADE | 0.04 | COMMON | 1 | 0.04 |
| PELACOR ARBALEST | 0.33 | RARE | 1 | 0.33 |
| TIME MAGE | 0.32 | RARE | 1 | 0.32 |
| CHAOS KNIGHT | 0.06 | COMMON | 1 | 0.06 |
| BLINDING REFLECTOR | 0.04 | COMMON | 2 | 0.08 |
| STICH LEECH | 0.16 | COMMON | 1 | 0.16 |
| SUNKAI HARVESTER | 0.04 | COMMON | 1 | 0.04 |
| GARGOYA SCRAPPER | 0.04 | COMMON | 3 | 0.12 |
| REGAL PERYTON | 0.26 | RARE | 1 | 0.26 |
| MYCELIC SLIPSPAWN | 0.33 | RARE | 1 | 0.33 |
| HILL GIANT | 0.04 | COMMON | 1 | 0.04 |
| VENARY KNIFER | 0.06 | COMMON | 2 | 0.12 |
| DIEMONSHARK | 0.40 | RARE | 1 | 0.40 |
| DEEPLURKER | 0.21 | COMMON | 1 | 0.21 |
| CRUEL SETHROPOD | 0.05 | COMMON | 2 | 0.05 |
| KULU SWIMHUNTER | 0.05 | COMMON | 2 | 0.10 |
| HARDY STONEFISH | 0.05 | COMMON | 1 | 0.05 |
| DJINN INFERNI | 1.57 | EPIC | 1 | 1.57 |
| DJINN APPENTICE | 0.15 | RARE | 1 | 0.15 |
| RADIATED BRUTE | 0.06 | COMMON | 2 | 0.12 |
| RADIATED SCORCHER | 0.04 | COMMON | 2 | 0.08 |
| SCAVO CHEMIST | 1.21 | GOLDEN COMMON | 1 | 1.21 |
| GRAND TOTAL: $7.11 | INVESTMENT: $46 | PROFIT: $0 | LOSSES: $ -38.39 |
Lamentablemente no obtuve ganancias, y obtuve una perdida estimada de $38.39 en mi compra de 7 paquetes de Chaos Legi贸n.
Por ultimo, debo considerar que 0,28 % es la probabilidad de recibir las 11 cartas v铆a airdrop, una probabilidad que aumenta para cada jugador en base a la cantidad de paquetes comprados en las primeras 24 horas de la venta general, en mi caso con 6 paquetes comprados me permite tener una ligera probabilidad de 1,71 % de recibir alguna de las cartas v铆a airdrop.
驴Cu谩l ser谩 el siguiente paso?
Con esta experiencia y perdida de capital, he concluido que en mi caso la mejor estrategia a seguir es comprar cartas por separado en el mercado, comprar paquetes es bueno si adquieres cantidades altas, pero para jugadores de bajo presupuesto lo mejor es ir obteniendo cartas por separado, con esta inversi贸n de $46 habr铆a podido comprar varias cartas de otras ediciones, que tienen m谩s poder que las nuevas de Chaos Legi贸n y asi subir de liga sin alquilar. De ahora en adelante ser谩 mi estrategia a seguir.
Te recuerdo que esta es mi experiencia y decisi贸n personal, invertir en probabilidades es una apuesta arriesgada, hay quienes compran un paquete y reciben legendarias rentabilizando asi su inversi贸n, pero estos son otros casos, si t煤 eres uno de ellos me gustar铆a leerte en los comentarios, y si te sucedi贸 como a m铆, te animo a compartir tu "Chaos".
Gracias por leer
La portada es de mi autoria realizada en Adobe Photoshop, las imagenes de las cartas son de mi cuenta de Splinterlands
Si quieres comenzar a jugar puedes hacerlo desde aqu铆馃憞