今年以来，本来以为放开管控，经济就会自然复苏的。这大半年过去了，政府终于回过神来，原来处理经济并不是像开水龙头那么简单。股市就不用说了，又一次打响三千点保卫战，这个A股也真的是世界独一份的奇葩。十几年了，就只能在三千点上下晃悠。房地产也是眼见着量缩价跌，因为这一块关系着地方政府的土地财政，政府也终于坐不住了。所以最近密集出台救市政策。股市是降低印花税，而楼市的政策就更多了，主要是以放松管制为主。比如说，认房不认贷，存量房的利率下调了。这些救市政策到底有多大作用呢?我也说不好。从奥地利学派经济学的观点来说，所谓的经济危机，或者说是商业的繁荣萧条周期，都是政府干预的结果。其实，真正要救市的话，并不是需要政府去做什么。要救市，反倒是政府不要做什么，或者把以前的管制去掉就行了。对于房地产救市政策，所谓的认房不认贷，实际上是放宽了管制，让更多的人可以利用金融工具购买房产。但是，降低存量房贷的利率，这些政策是由中央银行发布的，所以这种认房不认贷是一种定向的货币政策。目的就是想减轻房贷压力，让居民有更多的钱拿出来购买新的房地产，稳住房价。所以说，第一，这个利率降得太少了，第二，这个目的本身也是不正确的。不管是房价还是利率，其本质都是一种价格，价格反映的是买卖双方的供求关系，是由买卖双方的意愿决定的，而不应该是由中央银行或者政府来决定的。这个政策的目的就是想稳住房价，拖住房价，不让房价下跌，也就是说不让价格浮动。市场上一个商品，它的供给过多，需求不足的时候，降价可以带来更多的需求，这是一个非常浅显的道理。房子本身也是一种商品，并没有什么特殊的，因为它涉及到了政府的财政收入，就发生了这么多的政府干涉行为。房地产市场需要救吗?根本就不需要救，只要让它回归市场，自由浮动，一切问题都能迎刃而解。至于房价泡沫破裂导致的金融暴雷之类的问题，每个人都需要为自己的错误承担责任。尽管是国有银行，也没有什么特殊的，犯了错误就要国家来救，这不是巨婴吗?
Since the beginning of this year, we thought that if we relaxed control, the economy would naturally recover. After nearly half a year, the Government finally came to its senses and realized that dealing with the economy is not as simple as running a tap. Needless to say, the stock market has once again started A three-thousand point defense war, and this A-share is really a wonderful flower in the world. Ten years, it's only hovering around 3,000 points. Real estate is also seeing a decline in prices, because this is related to the land finance of local governments, and the government has finally been unable to sit still. Therefore, the recent intensive introduction of rescue policies. The stock market has reduced stamp duty, while the property market has more policies, mainly based on deregulation. For example, the interest rate on the existing housing stock has been lowered. How effective are these bail-outs? I don't know. From the perspective of Austrian economics, the so-called economic crisis, or the boom-bust cycle of business, is the result of government intervention. In fact, if we really want to rescue the market, we do not need the government to do anything. In order to rescue the market, the government should not do anything, or just remove the previous regulation. For the real estate rescue policy, the so-called recognition of housing does not recognize loans, in fact, is to relax control, so that more people can use financial instruments to buy real estate. However, lowering the interest rate on the stock of mortgage loans, these policies are issued by the central bank, so this kind of housing and loan recognition is a kind of targeted monetary policy. The purpose is to reduce the pressure on mortgage loans, so that residents have more money to buy new real estate and stabilize housing prices. So, first, the rate is too low, and second, the purpose itself is incorrect. Whether it is housing price or interest rate, its essence is a kind of price, price reflects the supply and demand relationship between buyers and sellers, is determined by the will of buyers and sellers, and should not be determined by the central bank or the government. The purpose of this policy is to stabilize housing prices, delay housing prices, and prevent housing prices from falling, that is, prevent prices from floating. When the supply of a commodity on the market is too much and the demand is insufficient, the price reduction can bring more demand, which is a very simple truth. The house itself is also a kind of commodity, and there is nothing special about it, because it involves the government's financial revenue, so much government interference has occurred. Does the housing market need a rescue? There is no need to save it, just let it go back to the market, float freely, everything will be solved. When it comes to problems such as the financial explosion caused by the bursting of the housing bubble, everyone needs to take responsibility for their own mistakes. Even though it is a state-owned bank, there is nothing special. If you make a mistake, you will have to be rescued by the state. Isn't this a giant baby?
