This election date has been on my calendar since the spring stock recovery started hitting new highs. The biggest global markets have obviously been politicized & manipulated for quite a long time. Today could be a trend changing date based on what happens in the elections. They have also been showing some serious signs of weakness (October).
That being said the most interesting thing I’m seeing so far today is the US 10y bond yield shooting up while the thirty yield remains slightly red. The higher the 10y gets & the closer the spread gets to the 30 year the greater chance of surprises in the debt market.
Could end up being a very interesting day by market close, but US indices are slightly green to start the day. The Vix is up today despite the move up in stocks. This is the first day in a really really long time that I can remember seeing all the indices gaining while the Vix goes up as well. The Vix has moved up on stock downdays & down on stock up days for a long time.
I also saw this statistic on Vix shorts this morning & find it very interesting. Just the etfs alone are worth 46billion. I’m sure there is another huge stack in the options market as well, but it is hard to find a good estimate for the total.
It amazes me that the Vix etf market cap is so high compared to bitcoins total market cap at 111billion & the total crypto space is 200billion. Being short Vix has been really profitable in a quiet market that moves only up, but if the trend changes that easy money is gonna need a flight to safety. So will many many other investment vehicles.
The dollar is pretty flat today, & bitcoin is putting on a small gain
Metals are down a little today, but the commodity getting the most attention is oil. Lots of sanction posturing going on with Iran & so the oil price has been pulled up & down lately, perhaps finding resistance at around $60usd a barrel.
Things can happen real quick from here, good to be prepared early. Gold, silver, & crypto’s are my favorite hedges against the fiat debt machine. Patience & observation is key.
Thanks for reading, Happy Midterms 😆