Speculations on bitcoin are all over the place. Well, actually, most people are clustering pretty close together. $100k by the end of 2024, and about $300k - $350k in 2025.
But, what is really driving speculators nuts is that bitcoin isn't really moving. So, when bull run?
We have institutions buying Huge amounts of bitcoin, and the price barely cares. So much so that people are coming up with theories like coinbase selling bitcoinIOUs to BlackRock. (The theory would be more plausible if coinbase was selling customer's bitcoin to BlackRock, and putting the IOUs in the customer's accounts)
So what is really happening with bitcoin? What can we expect?
The bitcoin ETFs were created to manipulate the market.
Here we have a huge pile of bitcoins and cash that we can dump on the market, or suck up the market.
So, we are going to see a lot more waves as bitcoin's price rises.
And if you aren't expecting manipulation, you haven't followed any ETF news, like ever.
GATA has been trying to get the SEC to crack down on the gold ETF, even handing over several smoking guns, and nothing… (to put this into perspective, if you could sell just before the COMEX opens, and buy just before the COMEX closed, you would, 99% of the time, make money. Nothing goes that way, every day, all the time, unless it is manipulation.)
Bitcoin's price is not as manipulatable as the manipulators would like.
Also, it has a propensity to make moves, in a day, above 10%. And, ETFs have circuit breakers.
Imagine bitcoin going from $70k to $80k in a day, but inside the ETF, your "bitcoin" is only worth 73.333k because of how the ETF works. A lot of people are going to be very upset with how the ETF functions, and there will be a lot of people who say, i should have just bought bitcoin. And many will do just that.
Bitcoin will destroy the people trying to manipulate it by being even more volatile than they could ever manage.
AND THEN!
No one wants to sell bitcoin. Or, everyone decides to avoid the big exchanges where the ETFs get their coins. And bitcoin goes no ask. More people want to buy into the ETF, and there is none available at that price. And probably none available at any near by higher price.
What will the ETFs do then? First, they will probably lie. Which will leave them owing more bitcoin then exists, and then they will try to pay everyone in cash when the bitcoin price is several times what is being offered.
The ETFs are going to get such a huge black eye. And this will be the beginning of the end for them.
I believe we will see a really big crash in the market before bitcoin goes off to 100k. (i might be wrong on the timing, and it comes early next year. So, up to 100k, and then sideways, then crash, then back up)
The crash in bitcoin will be over really fast. Whales are now poised to buy it up.
However, you can pick up lots of other cryptos for really cheap. So cheap, that i expect there to be a crash in many other markets that sucks lots of money out, or some other explanation that means an overall monetary crash.
So, big crash, then up and up and up.
We may see a break in the four year cycle of bitcoin. Well, it will either be this time, or in four more years. When yacht and Lambo buyers just switch to storing money in bitcoin.
Every other market, bond, stock, banks are going to be shown to be unsafe, then the money really starts flowing into any safe place. The problem is, there isn't much gold, and there isn't much bitcoin for sale.
Something big is coming, or probably many big things are coming. So, i expect that bitcoin will never be under $100k ever again.
All that i am sure of is that the ETFs are going to get busted. They should never have attempted to handle something so hot as bitcoin.
What are the ramifications after that? It gets really hard to tell.
When the price of houses are dropping because of lack of buyers, and bitcoin is going up. What is bitcoin/house? It was 100s, it is now 20s, soon 1s? And how do you take that number? What does it mean?
It will be even worse when we actually start seeing real (you ain't seen nothin yet) inflation in the dollar.
This makes future predictions fairly meaningless.
(based on one person trading a huge pile of cash for a 100,000 satoshis. No one really has $100M to trade, and we also may be saying then, no one has a full bitcoin to trade)
Geeze, the way i am talking, one would expect that i believe the bull run is already over and we are waiting for the next halving.
